2020 Prez Election

Developing & testing the application of Sidereal Mundane Astrology to Picking Winners in sports competitions.
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Jim Eshelman
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jim Eshelman » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:07 am

Steve, can you remind me...? What were the final Vegas odds on the 2016 presidential election? (Am I remembering correctly that they had narrowed but still showed a significant advantage to Hillary, who did indeed win the popular vote?)
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:13 pm

Jim wrote and asked:
Steve, can you remind me...? What were the final Vegas odds on the 2016 presidential election? (Am I remembering correctly that they had narrowed but still showed a significant advantage to Hillary, who did indeed win the popular vote?)
I remember this fairly well. These odds may not be exact but are very close in 2016. 2 weeks before the 2016 Prez election, Hillary was running around - 400 to win. This means she was 4-1 to win! On the Day of the election I saw her winning odds jump to - 900, which was the highest winning odds I ever saw for Prez Candidate. This means on election day Hillary at one point was 9-1 to win election. Then about 8:00 PM on election night Vegas was still posting betting odds and by then the odds on Hillary winning drastically dropped very fast to even!!! In other words, Vegas saw before the news media---Trump was reversing the odds for winning. Then from 8:00 PM up to the media's official announcement Trump had won the Prez, I saw Trump's winning odds go from even up to - 800, 8-1 to win before the final announcement he had won. I know several major pro bettors bet heavy money on Trump winning when they saw the betting odds rapidity reversing from Hillary a huge - 900 favorite to even betting odds between 7:00-9:00 pm election night, CST.

Here is what I expect to see happen weeks before the 2020 election. I expect the right wing media to be telling their audience there is no way Trump can lose, just as the left wing media was telling their audience there was no way Hillary could lose the 2016 Prez election leading-up to the election. A-lot of this will depend on the Vegas odds leading up to the 2020 election after the Democratic Convention in July 2020. In other words, we have good chances of the seeing the reverse of what happened in 2016 where certain left-wing media sources were telling their audience there was no way Trump the Clown could beat Hillary for Prez, we have high chances for seeing certain right-wing media sources telling there is no way Trump will lose the 2020 election to the Clown on the left. It all depends on the betting odds going into last two weeks of 2020 election and the Dem Candidate-- because--do not doubt--the media sources follow closely Vegas betting odds, which sways heavily the psychologically how media sources report political news for Prez elections.

Why do I feel this way??? Because we see a potent Uranus-Pluto Paran in the 2020 Libsolar!!! I will have to check---but I believe the last time for a major sporting/betting contest I saw a Uranus-Pluto Paran (maybe mundo) was when the New York Jets played the Baltimore Colts in the 68-69 Super Bowl, and Vegas had the Colts an 18 point favorite and the sports media were saying there was no way Joe Namath, the Quarterback Clown for the Jets could win the Super Bowl. Joe Namath in very brash way promised his followers he would win the Super Bowl for em---kinda like Trump in his bragging brash manners promised his followers he would win Prez. Prominent Uranus-Pluto configurations are the # 1 astrological configurations for predicting major upsets in any type contest!!! Lets wait and see where the betting odds are 2 weeks before 2020 election.

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:23 am

As of today, the Reps are 2-1 favorites to hold control of the Senate after 2020 election:

https://markets.predictwise.com/politic ... ess-senate

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:53 am

DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR THE 2020 ELECTION
Wager Cutoff: 09/08/2019 23:00:00
Warren +200
Biden + 300
Harris +700
Sanders +800
Yang +800

Party to Win Prez:
Dems -125
Reps -115

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:34 am

New betting odds are out for the Dems Candidate. Andrew Yang has entered the picture with his campaign known for its popularity online, with The New York Times calling Yang "The Internet's Favorite Candidate".

Warren +200
Biden +250
Yang +750
Sanders +800
Harris +800

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:14 pm

New weekly betting odds for 2020 Election (Wager cutoff 9/23):

Party to win Prez:
Dem -125
Rep -115

2020 US Presidential Election:
Trump -125
Warren +400
Biden +600
Sanders +1500
Yang +1800
Harris +2000

Democratic Nominee:
Warren +200
Biden +250
Yang +800
Harris +800
Sanders +800

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:01 am

OK, I sincerely have a very important question to ask anyone about the 2020 Prez election. Presently, the top 5 Dem candidates according to Vegas odds makers to win 2020 Prez are:

Warren + 400
Biden +600
Sanders +1500
Yang +1800
Harris +2000

With all the other Dem candidates not on the above list, I seriously ask all who follow politics closely: Who not on the above list do you give a good chance to win Dem Prez? I ask this question because Vegas now has this 2020 Prez election set-up with their betting odds where if one out of the 5 above candidates won Prez---it would be impossible to lose money. Here is how with a betting example:

The betting odds for the Party to win Prez are:

Dem -125
Rep -115

The Dem Party is a slight favorite to win Prez. I could take 1,000 $ and bet the Rep-115 to win Prez. If the Dem won Prez I would lose 1,115 $. But I will take another 1000 $ and divide this 1000 $ into 5 separate betting units and bet on each of the 5 above Dem candidates with the following possible speculative bets:

280 $ for Warren +400 to win Prez—for a possible 1,120 $ win.
200 $ for Biden +600 to win Prez---for a possible 1,200 $ win.
75.00 $ for Sanders +1,500 to win Prez---for a possible 1,125 $ win.
200 $ for Yang +1,800 to win Prez—for a possible 3,600 $ win.
245 $ for Harris +2000 to win Prez---for a possible 4,900 $ win.

With the above bets, I have a total of 2,115 $ at risk and the worst outcome would be I win 5.00 $, but the best possible outcome I win 3,785 $.

Of course, If another Dem candidate besides the one's above wins Prez I lose 2,115 $. So, I sincerely ask again: Which Dem candidate running for Prez which is not on the above list do you guys/dolls thinks could win Prez. And, I sincerely ask how would you divide-up a 1,000 $ betting on the above 5 Dem candidates to win Prez?

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jim Eshelman » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:29 am

SteveS wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:01 am
With all the other Dem candidates not on the above list, I seriously ask all who follow politics closely: Who not on the above list do you give a good chance to win Dem Prez?
The only name that isn't on that list and should be is Buttigieg. I don't think he'll get the Prez nom, but he's solidly in the running for VP.
Of course, If another Dem candidate besides the one's above wins Prez I lose 2,115 $. So, I sincerely ask again: Which Dem candidate running for Prez which is not on the above list do you guys/dolls thinks could win Prez. And, I sincerely ask how would you divide-up a 1,000 $ betting on the above 5 Dem candidates to win Prez?
Yang is least likely to last. (I like the guy - he's one of several smart people that still probably won't get the nom.)

At this point, politically speaking, Warren has the best shot. Bernie won't get it, Biden keeps staying on top but one wonders how long his momentum can last (but he's the only leading candidate with the chart to succeed Trump), Harris might re-energize, Buttigieg keeps impressing everybody with few taking seriously his chance for the nom (but he could) - which is why I think he's strong VP material.
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:49 am

Thanks Jim, I really appreciate your Dem opinions--it will help me make a more informed wagering decision.

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jim Eshelman » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:32 pm

There is news today that Sanders' campaign may be caving faster than expected. It's premature to say that it is, but this is worth reading:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... ar-AAHrmkq
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:45 pm

Jim, what does Holly and Trent mean with the following statement:
...because I want to make sure the strongest candidate unmasks Biden...

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jim Eshelman » Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:37 pm

SteveS wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:45 pm
Jim, what does Holly and Trent mean with the following statement:
...because I want to make sure the strongest candidate unmasks Biden...
That quote is attribute to Rafael Shimunov, a former national creative director for WFP and 2016 Sanders volunteer. He apparently feels that there is something to unmask about Biden - more broadly, that he has to be unseated - and wants the strongest candidate to take on Trump.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sanders wins in New Hampshire, but I also think we shouldn't make much of it. He's from Vermont and that "neighbor" matter helped him a lot three years ago. He's historically as strong there as in his home state, more or less. That means that anything other than a very strong showing for him in NH suggests he's lost a lot of steam this time around.
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:47 pm

Warren is also a NH "neighbor" and should also make a strong showing there. I'd expect Warren, Sanders, Biden, but the top two might switch.

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:02 pm

Jim wrote:
That means that anything other than a very strong showing for him in NH suggests he's lost a lot of steam this time around.
Got it, thanks Jim.

And Jupe, thanks for your input--i respect your feel for Dem politics.

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:17 pm

You know I'm a Goldwater Republican, right?

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:40 pm

Jupe wrote/asked:
You know I'm a Goldwater Republican, right?
:) Hell no, I didn't know this! You know I am a true independent, right? But my favorite Presidents were Bill Clinton and JFK. :)

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:59 am

Latest Vegas changes:

For Prez; top 7:
Trump -125
Warren +300
Biden +500
Sanders +1300
Yang +1600
Harris +1800
Buttigieg +2500

For Dem Nominee; top 6:
Warren +150
Biden +200
Sanders +700
Harris +700
Yang +700
Buttigieg +1300

Party to win Prez, still the same, Dem slight favorite to win Prez.
Dem -125
Rep -115

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