2020 Prez Election

Developing & testing the application of Sidereal Mundane Astrology to Picking Winners in sports competitions.
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:18 am

What's interesting is how little this has moved in a month, given all the news (including nes reporting continuing poll slides).
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:06 am

Jim wrote:
What's interesting is how little this has moved in a month, given all the news (including nes reporting continuing poll slides).
I have turned all news sources off, but I still have friends/clients who call me asking what I think about most polls favoring Biden. After what I saw with the pools in 2016---taught me a lesson to ignore polls hyped by media. :)

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:42 am

The pollsters are also aware of the problems, and now the news media is as well, so there likely will be fewer misleading polls as well.

And Mrs. Clinton DID win the election. It was the electoral college, as rigged by the Republican party over the last 20 some years, that elected Trump.

That's why this election is still a toss-up. The electoral collage is chosen by captive state legislatures. Those little off-year elections are important, maybe more important, than the big one every four years.

That's also why this is is more important because this year the census numbers will be allocated by the Senate and the state legislatures. Even if you love your senator, vote democratic and get the numbers. Then you can vote the one you love back in in two years.

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:13 am

New odds for the new week:
Dem -185
Rep +150

Biden's VP:
K. Harris +120
S. Rice +200
K. Bass +500
T. Duckworth +700
V. Demings +1200
H. Clinton +10,000
B. Sanders +20,000

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Sat Aug 08, 2020 11:22 am

Dem --150
Rep + 125

Biden has lost some of his favorite odds. I don't watch news. Has anything fundamentally happened for this change in odds?

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jim Eshelman » Sat Aug 08, 2020 11:57 am

It's hard to sort out that anything has changed. The only things that objectively have changed is that some pharma companies are announcing progress on a cure.

The rest is propaganda which, of course, is a reality. Trump is posturing himself as the one who will order a further bailout as Congress stalls on it. Russian sources have been identified as working against Biden in mass media.

Oh, and Kanye West's presidential campaign is actually getting some backing - from people connected to the Trump campaign! This can only hurt Biden (can't hurt Trump).

I think what we're probably seeing, though, is Saturn's opposition to Biden's Jupiter this month. I knew at the start of the year it would be a rough time for him and it's too bad the convention is right about now. The question is whether he can recover his momentum.
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:52 am

Jim wrote:
I think what we're probably seeing, though, is Saturn's opposition to Biden's Jupiter this month. I knew at the start of the year it would be a rough time for him and it's too bad the convention is right about now.
Ah--good explanation, thanks.

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:24 pm

Dems -135
Reps +110

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jim Eshelman » Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:19 am

I was asked elsewhere if I was going to publish an election forecast. Mainly, I just plan to do my regular monthly U.S. forecast (with a Trump and Biden page on each) I'm not sure I've exhausted everything I should look at for an outright forecast. Nonetheless, I've gathered a lot of astrological clues that I'm willing to collate in one place.

First, both Biden and Trump have bizarrely unhelpful lunar returns from October through the end of the year. (Joe is every kind of Neptune he can find by transit, progression, direction, and return chart; Trump is mixed and unclear.) Some of this might be that they both experience more travel than i thought they'd undertake - that their lunar returns don't actually set up where I expect them to be.

For Election Day itself, Trump looks slightly better, but I don't think Election Day is the target date: People are voting from at least mid-October on, and we likely won't have an answer at least for a few days and maybe for three or four weeks, so the timing (finding the critical date) is weird. OTOH, for Inauguration Day, Biden looks a little better.

Trump has a Lunar Return exactly the day the Electoral College votes that is one of the most powerful charts I've ever seen - but I can't tell if it's powerful good or bad. (BOTH Jupiter and Saturn are within minutes of Ascendant, conjunct, with Pluto nearby. By traditional means of interpreting, this is a defeat marker, but I'm not willing to rely on that.) A lunar ingress the day Congress counts the ballots is unusual in that it's a Liblunar - normally a one-week chart - that lasts three weeks this tine and seems to me a "breath of fresh air" or "new agenda" chart even though amidst difficult, terrible conditions. Biden's Demi-SLR the same day is exceptionally positive.

Which brings us to the inauguration: All of a sudden, on January 20, 2021, Joe Biden's new Sidereal Lunar Return, though physically threatening, looks like he's the absolute center of attention in Washington, DC. Kamala Harris, who lives in DC and probably will be at the inauguration as a Senator whichever way the vote goes, has a lunar return the same night (their Moons are conjunct) showing it's one of the happiest days of her life. Harris also has progressed Sun 0°05' from her natal Descendant and a 0°04' progressed Moon-Jupiter conjunction - her chart looks astonishingly good (victorious and reigning) for Inauguration Day, though Joe remains very much a centerpiece - it's not like he's no longer there, as some have suggested.

So... as far as I've gone... I think the Democratic ticket wins. I can't tell a bloody thing I find reliable through the end of 2020, but January 6 starts to perk up and January 20 shows Harris at the peak of ambition, success, and attainment and Biden as a centerpiece of all Washington's attention.

Finally, January 20 is the exact day Trump has is final 0°00' transiting Neptune square natal Uranus AND the exact day transiting Pluto opposes his Saturn 0°00'. It does seem that reality cuts the bottom out from under his world
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:23 pm

Biden - 135
Trump + 115

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jim Eshelman » Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:02 pm

An important article and assessment by Charlie Cook of the highly respected Cook Political Report:

Many Are Afraid To Say It, but This Is Not a Close Race
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/nati ... U.facebook
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:28 pm

Maybe it's not a close race, but one way to make it close is to not vote because you think it's already in the bag. See 2016.

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Mon Aug 31, 2020 9:52 am

Biden - 110
Trump Even

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:02 am

Narrowing... never wide, and narrowing earlier than usual.
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:14 am

The only odds that really matter are for the day of election. I still see much mixed stuff with this election. No way Trump wins with standard partile transits to his natal, and most of the Sidereal Astrology I use leans against Trump too. But, most of the Uranian astrology I think may be reliable says the opposite---no way Biden wins. No way I am wagering on this election regardless the final odds.

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:46 am

Agree on not wagering on this one.

I agree with Firebrace's philosophy that anything really big shows in multiple methods, so the "check everything but the kitchen sink" approach is probably the best. To only slightly simplify everything I checked showed Biden better than Trump for Inauguration Day EXCEPT Solar Arcs show the opposite. When using the shotgun approach, it doesn't matter what technique disagrees: If all known strong techniques except one lean in one direction, then throw out the one disagreeing technique.

That's aside from the fact that I have less confidence in Solar Arcs than in the transits / Secondary Progressions / Sidereal return charts.

There's also the fact that Harris' chart for Inauguration Day is 24 karat gold.

I think this year Election Day is too imprecise. If you are trying to see how other people will regard the candidates and vote, we have to consider that early voting begins as soon as September 22 this year and continues for over a month (with perhaps a majority of people voting early this year). If you are trying to see how the candidates will feel when the answer comes in, there is the problem that it may take two or three or four weeks before we know the outcome. We don't know when between September 22 and December 14 is the most important date.

But we know where the winner will be standing January 20, 2021 at noon.
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:16 pm

Excellent points Jim throwing more mixed signals into the mix.

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:55 pm

2020 Presidential Election Odds Chart since Jan 2020:

https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020 ... ds-futures

Scroll down about a 1/3 of page for a progression of the betting odds chart since Jan 2020. Interesting to note in Feb Biden was + 2000 underdog to win Prez. Since Trump is now an even bet to win Prez, one could have bet 100 $ on Biden to win Prez in Feb, and then today bet 1000 $ on Trump to win Prez, and the worst outcome for the better would be a 900 $ win no matter who wins Prez. I think this was back in the days when Bernie was a big favorite to win Dem Nomination that Biden was a + 2000 underdog to take Prez. Proving betting psychology can change rapidly for a Prez election.

Makes me think if the real powers behind the Dem Party knew there was no way Bernie would get Dem Nomination but had a good idea Biden would get the Nomination? If so, this type of insider knowledge would have banked a lot of $ with hedge betting no matter who wins Prez. If memory is serving me, both JSAD and Jim strongly felt Biden would eventually get the nod over Bernie?

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:50 pm

I thought, not that Biden would get the nod, but that there was no way Bernie could get the nomination. Not because people were against his getting it. Because he's just not presidential material. If he'd got the nomination, he wouldn't be ahead now the way Biden is. He's just too far, not left, but off-key.

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:04 pm

Agreed, it was clear that Bernie wouldn't get it.

My primary position was:
1. The party has a strong division and choice between those who want to go far left (and thus to campaign by saying "screw anyone in the middle and right, let's overwhelm them with our vast new voter numbers") vs. those who want to go moderate-centrist (and thus to campaign saying, "Everyone who normally would vote Republican and is fed up with Trump, please join us this year for a sensible shared solution").
2. I had no idea which way was the best strategic path
3. Since the success of either relied on whether they could actually turn out voters, the best solution was to let the primaries determine it
4. I thought that relying on those who historically voted (moderate-left) was smarter than relying on those who historically don't vote (those who were aligned with the far left)
5. OTOH I personally thought we needed the unity, reaching across to the other side approach this year more than any other year AND that this was the best year ever to pursue disenchanted Republicans, so my bias made my less certain that #4 was correct.

I think Bernie has brilliant ideas that I almost entirely support but that he has no real ability to lead because he is touted as sticking to his guns and "never compromising" - which means he's politically impotent, since politics is all about compromise.

But it could have gone Warren, for example... I saw no way that Bernie could get the nomination AND Democrats would win, but was unsure whether a far-left or centrist-left approach was the best strategy.
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