Tornado Fairdale, Ill

[Jupiter Sets at Dawn]

Fri Apr 10, 2015 2:03 am
A tornado formed near Ashton, Illinois, around 6:40 p.m. CDT Thursday. It crossed Interstate 39 several miles north of Rochelle, Illinois, shortly after 7 p.m. CDT. The tornado was broadcast live on The Weather Channel as it cut across the northern suburbs of Chicago, finally dissipating as it churned toward the border with Wisconsin.

I'm using the time of 7:05PM as the time it hit Fairdale, Illinois because last I heard there was one death, and several missing in Fairdale. (ETA: Fairdale is an unincorporated town close to I-39, where the tornado crossed the road. Reports say it was "obliterated.")

The Capsolar, Libsolar and Cansolar were all dormant. The Arisolar occuring on April 14th, 2014, is the current chart. It's five days to the next Arisolar, which is sitting on the Sun (i.e. conj the IC by 25'.)
The mundane chart for the 2014 Arisolar shows Mars 10 minutes south of the Ascendant. Jupiter 3 degrees west of the MC opposing Pluto 3 degrees east of the IC, and both square Uranus, 3 degrees north of the Descendent.

The Cap-Q, Can-Q and Lib-Q are all silent, while the Ari-Q has Mars 3 degrees north of the Ascendant, Jupiter 2 degrees west and Pluto 2 degrees east of the MC-IC axis, while Uranus has moved to less than 30 minutes south of the DSC.

The Aries and Cancer Lunar Ingresses are dormant, while the Caplunar shows Mars one degree south, and Uranus one and a half degrees north of the DSC, while Pluto and the Moon straddle the IC, about 5 degrees away on either side.
The Liblunar of April 5th shows Jupiter one degree south of the DSC, and Saturn four degrees east of the MC.

At the time the tornado hit Fairdale, Uranus was less than a degree south of the DSC opposing Arisolar Mars within 20 minutes.

[Jupiter Sets at Dawn]

Good analysis! Thanks

The Capsolar, Libsolar and Cansolar were all dormant. The Arisolar occuring on April 14th, 2014, is the current chart. It's five days to the next Arisolar, which is sitting on the Sun (i.e. conj the IC by 25'.)

Good catch. (I love these examples. The only ingress operative pegs it!) Mars, as you say, is 0°10' from rising and Uranus is < 3° from setting. The partile mundane Mercury-Uranus conjunction (0°23') opposite Mars looks like an air crash (I'm pretty sure there were plenty of things crashing in, and from, the air!). The rest falls in place.

...the Caplunar shows Mars one degree south, and Uranus one and a half degrees north of the DSC, while Pluto and the Moon straddle the IC, about 5 degrees away on either side.

As you point out, the Caplunar is the key: fierce, destructive, violent, explosive, obliterating. A jewel you missed: The foreground Moon and Pluto have their midpoint 0°05' from IC (in mundo, of course, since that's how the angularity is measured). Similarly, the Mars/Uranus midpoint is 0°02' from the horizon. This exact spot on the map, within a few miles at best, was singled out for the most precise hit of this event.

The Liblunar of April 5th shows Jupiter one degree south of the DSC, and Saturn four degrees east of the MC.

The worst chart in the bunch, since it's primarily a Jupiter chart with a little token Saturn. One interpretation of this that has become standard to me is that an angular Jupiter afflicted by Saturn or Uranus is implicated in structural collapses. (The Jupiter is in < 3° mundane square to the Saturn.) I'm not sure this is a fit, though (not in the Uranus-Pluto sense of "tearing down old structures") since I think the Jupiter key to structural collapses is "collapsing under its own weight due to weakness."

How about rain? Was there enormous rain with this? (Hurricanes bring it. My distant recollection of tornadoes is that they at least don't bring rain consistently. We're used to seeing one clear Jupiter dominant presence in a lunar ingress for hurricanes, but I don't know if it fits here.)

The Cap-Q, Can-Q and Lib-Q are all silent, while the Ari-Q has Mars 3 degrees north of the Ascendant, Jupiter 2 degrees west and Pluto 2 degrees east of the MC-IC axis, while Uranus has moved to less than 30 minutes south of the DSC.

You've done your homework digging into these Cool. (I don't look at the LibQ and AriQ much at all since, in actual predictive work, juggling these usually-minor charts simply isn't doable or (usually) worthwhile; but when they hit, they hit!)

My analysis of the daily timing:

The CapQ is silent as you say, and there are no transits to the Capsolar. (Ditto for the Libsolar and its progressions.)

The CanQ has transiting Moon on its Descendant (something I've recently seen when a hurricane settles into a specific place, but nothing we can use predictively); but has one terribly important factor which we have been watching for many weeks. It describes a broad period of time, much as a solar Quarter chart would, but is no less important for its breadth: I mean CanQ Moon, at 21°16' Pisces for this event, 0°17' from s. Uranus, 0°26' from t. Uranus, and 0°41' from square t. Pluto. The Cansolar itself has t. Neptune 1°32' from square its MC.

But - there it is, where you dug it out - the AriQ has:
p. IC 20°01' Sagittarius
p. Mercury 20°10' Pisces
t. Pluto 20°35' Sagittarius
s. Mars 21°40' Virgo (p. Mars 21°18')
t. Uranus 21°42' Pisces
p. EP 22°40' Virgo

(A couple of other things sit in the 2° orb range, including ingress Uranus and Pluto which squeak in to join their transiting counterparts; but s. Jupiter is out of orb.)

Additionally, the raw transits to the Arisolar angles are comparably strong. Its Ascendant was 21°02' Virgo - compare this to the positions.

[Jupiter Sets at Dawn]

This raises the question of why the Arisolar was so terribly important in this one case. Thinking about this a bit may help in the future.

One possible reason I reject is that it was important because it was the only non-dormant ingress at the time. This doesn't hold up when compared to other examples. For instance, there are many cases I can show where the Capsolar was dormant, yet the CapQ pegged the event. Every now and then an example pops up that makes me think, "Hey, is the governing solar ingress also the one that will handle the final timing?" - say, a strong Cansolar that just happens to have the CanQ and even Canlunar come to the rescue - but it ends up not holding water.

But what I think might be happening here is even simpler: I think (especially in the absence of stronger input), the fact that the Arisolar was already getting the same message by simple transit meant that its Q chart was going to be able to raise the volume. That is, were it not for transiting Uranus opposing Arisolar Mars right on the Arisolar angles (plus the other factors), the AriQ wouldn't have had much punch. These combo events might be worth watching. (My usual mantra: "The fact that it's hard doesn't mean we shouldn't do it. It just means that we get to complain more about how hard it is while we do it." )

Anyway... very sharp and educational example and analysis.

[Jupiter Sets at Dawn]

One possible reason I reject is that it was important because it was the only non-dormant ingress at the time. This doesn't hold up when compared to other examples. For instance, there are many cases I can show where the Capsolar was dormant, yet the CapQ pegged the event. Every now and then an example pops up that makes me think, "Hey, is the governing solar ingress also the one that will handle the final timing?" - say, a strong Cansolar that just happens to have the CanQ and even Canlunar come to the rescue - but it ends up not holding water.

I might have to modify the above opinion. After writing the above paragraph, I took the question back to the recently expanded mundane event data base (the catalogue of events for the forthcoming 5th ed. of SMA) and found something interesting. Caveat: The size of the available data pool for this question is small, so consider this only a preliminary opinion.

The data immediately before me confirms that, when the Capsolar is dormant, this in no sense weakens the CapQ or transits to the Capsolar angles. However - this is the new information - it may be that the Capsolar's dormancy strengthens the CanQ (without weakening the CapQ)!

For what follows, the "Capsolar Day" scores I use are the consolidated daily scores: Use the CapQ score if the CapQ has anything to say; otherwise, use the score for transits to Capsolar angles. The "Cansolar Day" is the same, but using the CanQ and transits to Cansolar angles.

Data Sample #1: Capsolar test
190 events (because 1 of the 191 doesn't have an actual known date). The Capsolar Day Score is "right" (+1 or +2) 89% of the time, or 94% of the time if we exclude zero-score events.

If we examine the 136 events where the Capsolar is non-dormant, these figures are 90% and 94%, i.e., effectively identical.

Furthermore, if we examine, instead, the 54 events for which the Capsolar is dormant, these scores are 89% and 96%. But for rounding errors, all three of these are identical.

Therefore, whether the Capsolar is dormant has no effect at all on the accuracy of the Capricorn Day Scores (i.e., CapQ backed up by transits to Capsolar angles).

Data Sample #2: Cansolar test
191 events. The Cansolar Day Score is "right" (+1 or +2) 74% of the time, or 88% of the time if we exclude zero-score events. Note that this is much inferior to the Capsolar Day Scores.

If we examine the 47 events where the Capsolar is dormant and the Cansolar is not dormant, these figures leap to 85% and 93% respectively. That is, they improve considerably and essentially tie the Capsolar Day Scores.

Therefore, the dormancy of the Capsolar significantly improves the accuracy of the Cansolar Day Scores for this particular data set. However, the data set is small and the result should be considered preliminary.

[Jupiter Sets at Dawn]

Going to an even smaller data set, which reduces the following to anecdotal status...

Of the 191 events, BOTH the Capsolar and Cansolar are dormant for seven events. (We could expand this to 12 events by including events where they have 0 scores; but for now, let's stick with the 7 solid dual-dormancy examples.)

Here are the events, and Sun's sign when the event occurred (giving us the quarter of the year).

Niteroi Circus Fire - Sag
Shuttle Challenger explosion - Cap
Halifax explosion - Sco
New London school explosion - Pis
Ronan Point - Tau
Versailles Wedding Hall - Tau
1907 Panic NY - Lib

All but two of these did very well with the normal Capsolar timing. The exceptions were the Niteroi fire, where the Cap had nothing to say (but the Can covered it), and the Challenger explosion where the Cap was out-and-out wrong and the Can had nothing to say.

The question to be tested is... Was there, in each of these cases, a prevailing active solar ingress, and did its own daily timing show the event in most or all of the cases.

Niteroi Circus Fire (Sag). The Arisolar was the only live solar ingress, and it showed the event very well on its face (Saturn on MC + fire-prone planets). However, the AriQ has only s. Mercury angular. The one thin showing is that t. Saturn remains within 2° of Arisolar MC and square Arisolar Asc. (Score: +1)

Shuttle Challenger explosion (Cap). The Libsolar was the active ingress, and showed the event well on its face (Mercury 02' from Dsc, foreground Pluto, Moon-Uranus conj. 8'). The LibQ was contradictory: s. Mercury angular exactly squared by t. Venus; t. Sun conj. s. Jupiter, both on the WP, though squared also by t. Pluto. More or less the same planets hit the Libsolar's own angles, so this makes the event structurally parallel to yesterday's tornado; but the aspects seem contrary to the nature of the event. (Score: -2)

Halifax explosion (Sco). The Libsolar was already the active quarter, and showed the event well. With the Capsolar & Cansolar dormant, did the Libsolar come through strongly on daily indicators? Yes, it did! LibQ Dsc was 7' from t. Pluto and 45' from s. Pluto. This is the best example yet. (Score: +2)

New London school explosion (Pis). Again, we have to go back nearly a year to a prior Arisolar to get a live solar ingress. It wasn't all that expressive on its face, but at least it was "live." The AriQ comes through very well: t. Neptune op. s. Saturn across the horizon for this morbid, horrible day in a small Texan town. Additionally, there is a partile square of AriQ Moon to Sun, an aspect very common for fires. (Score: +2)

Ronan Point (Tau). The Arisolar was the ingress of the quarter, and it showed the event well. The AriQ identifies the fire-explosion that was the cause of the collapse, with t. Mars conjunct Asc < 2°. (Score: +2)

Versailles Wedding Hall (Tau). The Arisolar is the prevailing ingress of the quarter. The AriQ is quite expressive: t. Sun-Saturn conj. sq. p. MC, and t. Uranus sq. p. Asc exactly. (Score: +2)

1907 Panic NY (Lib). All four solar ingresses were dormant.


[/CONCLUSIONS:
These charts performed well. Of 6 charts that had anything to test, four were clear +2 winners. The other two were mixed and bad. While this is only 2/3 of the charts doing well, it's much better than I expected. We can perhaps pump the numbers a little by adding the tornado that started this thread, and saying that 5 out of 7 testable events in front of us performed at +2 level.

This pilot is too small for final conclusions, but encourages me to continue looking in this particular vein. Thanks again to the OP for this example.

PS - If anyone wants to test the other 5 possible examples - events for which Capsolar and Cansolar were both either dormant or zero - here they are. (The data for these can be found in the book.)
Tehachapi quake
Kamchatka quake
Durunkah fire
Friendship Theater fire
Edward VIII abdication
(I won't get back to these soon, so anyone should feel encouraged to run with them and report.)

[Jupiter Sets at Dawn]

A jewel you missed: The foreground Moon and Pluto have their midpoint 0°05' from IC (in mundo, of course, since that's how the angularity is measured). Similarly, the Mars/Uranus midpoint is 0°02' from the horizon. This exact spot on the map, within a few miles at best, was singled out for the most precise hit of this event.

I have trouble with midpoints - not the interpretation, but the calculation in Solar Fire. I could, of course, just do it by hand, but having spent the money on the program, I'd like to know how to use it. I just need to understand the different reports. Or find the right report that gives me what I need so I can ignore the rest.

How about rain? Was there enormous rain with this? (Hurricanes bring it. My distant recollection of tornadoes is that they at least don't bring rain consistently. We're used to seeing one clear Jupiter dominant presence in a lunar ingress for hurricanes, but I don't know if it fits here.)

Hurricanes are about water. Tornadoes are about wind and debris, and collapses. Look at the photos of the aftermath of a direct hit. Everything is broken and has fallen. People are buried in debris, even if they made it into a storm shelter (a tomb of sorts.) (I have an air horn fastened to the underside of the stairs in my basement, because if the house falls down, that's where the critters and I will be and it's hard to find people who are buried, and the dog is old old and no longer in complete control of his bodily functions.)
An 81 year old man and his wife saw the thing coming and got off the interstate and to a restaurant just in time to be buried in the cellar with 11 other people. Nobody was hurt, but they were trapped for nearly two hours till emergency workers got to them.

However, there was enormous rain elsewhere. Lake Villa and Beach Park in Lake County recorded just under three inches of rain.

This is now classified an EF-4 It's also being called a single "long track" tornado, with a 50 mile track, although it didn't stay on the ground for the whole track, but touched down and retracted several times.