2020 Prez Election

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:56 pm

In 2020, 33 Senate seats are up for election. Presuming nothing big changes between now and then (such as people dying or otherwise leaving the Senate and being replaced by the opposite party), Democrats go into the contest with 45 members and two Independents caucusing, giving 47. Republicans have 53. To reach 67, the Democrats have to hold every current seat and win at least 20 more.

Of the 33 seats up for election, Republicans own 22 and Democrats own 11. That means the Democrats (to reach 67) have to win EVERY CONTEST except two. That's a gigantic undertaking. Two Republican Senators are retiring, but as they are from Nebraska and Tennessee that doesn't help much.

So, to make my point: For your scenario to exist, Democratic candidates have to replace Republicans in all but two of Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Iowa, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Wyoming, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, West Virginia, and Maine. (Some are surely winnable; some are highly unlikely). Furthermore, Democrats have to hold onto all of their seats that are up including Alabama where the last Democrat win was considered a miracle. (The rest shouldn't be that hard to hold.) Furthermore, this extraordinary, almost inconceivable flood of Democrat votes has to occur concurrent with Trump winning those same states plus a few blue ones like Michigan and Minnesota.

It really isn't likely that South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, and Kentucky (to name just a few) would vote out their Republican Senators while still voting in Trump.

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:36 pm

Thanks Jim for your understanding in this matter.

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:39 pm

SteveS wrote: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:36 pm Thanks Jim for your understanding in this matter.

It's just math

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:29 am

Jim wrote:

It's just math

And you know it so well.

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:09 pm

Jim teaches that Partile Aspects "reign supreme." I have known for some time with high % Trump will not win the 2020 Prez race with a simple partile transit of Saturn to key factor(s) in Trump’s Natal Chart on election night, Nov 3, 2020 featuring:

1: Trump’s Natal Venus 00,47 Can 1,45 cnj Natal Saturn 29,50 Gem
2: t. Saturn 01,22 Cap partile 180 Trump’s Natal Venus 01,45 Can.
3: Trump’s Natal Venus/Saturn Midpoint = 00,47 Cancer partile 180 t. Saturn 01,22 Cap
4: Trump’s Natal Sun/Mars Midpoint = 00,52 Cancer partile 180 t. Saturn 01,22 Cap

***NOTE Ebertin’s Sun/Mars=Saturn words for this planetary midpoint:

Pessimism. Difficulties or obstacles in vocation or profession, defeat in a fight or contest, separation.

This leaves me with one main question relative to my world. Who will Trump be running against on election night and what will be Vegas betting odds?

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:34 pm

Top 4 Dem's favored to win 2020 Dem Primary:

K. Harris +230
Biden +350
ORourke +400
Sanders + 500

The rest of the field are distance from these top 4.

Trump is + 130 to win Prez. Closest Dem to win Prez is + 800

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:44 pm

Of the top four Steve last listed, we have:

Harris: Libra-Aries
Biden: Scorpio-Aries
O'Rourke: Virgo-Taurus
Sanders: Leo-Pisces

Odds are very high that only a Taurus or Scorpio luminary can succeed Trump, and only one of those r a Gemini or Sagittarius luminary can succeed Pence. Of these four, that immediately narrows the picture to Biden and O'Rourke.

I spend some time with BIDEN'S chart today. It looks good for the nomination, not good for the election, and fearsomely hurtful for the nomination. At least, that's a first impression of running through the basic charts. Presuming a base of operation of his current home in Wilmington, DE (and it would surely be somewhere along the nearby eastern seaboard), his November 21, 2019 SSR looks really sweet with a Venus-Jupiter conjunction on IC and a little mob-madness of Moon opposite Neptune. The convention runs July 13-16, 2020 in Milwaukee, so for a convention peak of, say, 9 PM SQ Moon is 1°18' not quite partile square SSR Jupiter (almost exactly at Venus/Jupiter midpont), heading to the exact Jupiter square in August for the first month of campaigning. His Milwaukee SLR the day the convention begins is emotional and regal, so he is at least a significant figure: natal Sun-Venus rising, transiting Neptune on IC, etc.

The big problem through all of this is transiting Neptune on his IC. The transit follows him through the campaign and his SSR soon after the election has Neptune on IC as its main feature. There aren't a lot of transits centering on him for the convention - it's mostly the SSR itself and its progressions. (In fact, Moon conjoins his Saturn about the hour the convention is climaxing which, of course, can have various outcomes.)

For election night (using November 4, 0:00 EST), Uranus exactly squares his Pluto (14') - which could be a very big life-altering shift, especially if it's a surprise (I guess you can take it two ways, but I don't know that losing would be a big life-altering shift). But Saturn opposes his Jupiter (10') which sounds like loss. In fact, that's a big enough one that whether he is the candidate or not, it (by itself) looks bad for Democrats. His SLR October 30 for Wilmington has Neptune on MC, which could go a couple of ways but mostly leaves me really worried. Again, it is something very pivotal, since natal Pluto 13°17' Cancer is squared not only by transiting Uranus at 13°41' Aries but also transiting Sun at 13°04' Libra. It is something decisive. (I suppose this could be the decisive end of his his career, but that doesn't feel entirely right from watching him.)

And then, if the Uranus to natal Pluto message isn't clear enough, his November 20, 2020 SSR right after the election (the one with transiting Neptune on Dsc and natal Uranus and Saturn setting) has SSR Moon at 13°51' Capricorn.

Remember that ugly 2021 Capsolar? The inauguration chart resembles it with Pluto on MC and a 0°05' Mars-Uranus conjunction rising. (Mundanely, Moon even gets in the mix: It's a Moon-Mars-Uranus mundane conjunction on Asc sq Pluto on MC). This same pattern is also in Biden's new SLR for inauguration day which, for Washington, has the same (0°03') Mars-Uranus square at MC square Jupiter and a 2° Sun-Saturn conjunction just below, Moon-Saturn square is even closer, etc. etc. and so forth. (Natal Pluto is near Asc, opposed by Jupiter and square by Mars-Uranus. WTF do you make of that?)

Besides that Jupiter to his Pluto in the SLR, Biden's transits for inauguration start with Pluto opposite his Jupiter 56', then add the mixed messages of transiting Jupiter on his natal IC 02' and t Mars on his natal Dsc 30'.

These, of course, look like he has an appointment with destiny at that place and time - just not a NICE appointment.

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:21 pm

Or how about Beto? With that Taurus Moon, he's not John Kennedy - he's John Edwards. I only have my speculative chart for him (6:45 AM), so I won't rely on return charts or anything that is time specific. Natally he has a magnificent collection of aspects - we just don't know how they are disposed.

For the height of the convention - the hour the president and VP candidates are most exalted together, and probably the night the VP was chosen - Neptune is partile square his Saturn. That's not a good start. Mars opposes his Mercury. These don't sound like promising aspects.

If he's nominated, how does he look on election night? Noting at all is happening that we can tell from his chart without a birth time. (His SLR is a day or two right before.)

For inauguration, the Mars-Uranus conjunction is semi-square natal Saturn. I think for some reason he is completely out of the picture by the convention and is especially not welcome at the inauguration.

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:44 pm

Might as well check KAMALA HARRIS, though I don't think a Libra-Aries can replace Trump or Pence.

At the convention, Saturn exactly squares her Sun. That can be taken two ways and, most often, it shows as a superhuman taking on of responsibility. It also squares her Moon. which is more sacrificial; again, it could go both ways although it's not an easy path to nomination. I wouldn't rule it out.

Like Biden, she has an Aries Moon so her SLR is right before the convention. Her SLR for the night the convention opens has a little more Venus than anything else and the mix of Sun opposite Jupiter partile and Moon square Saturn partile (neither angular). Her Saturn is near WP, near Jupiter is near MC, neither super-close. I think I lean toward thinking this more in her favor than not - taking on an important role is the clearest meaning of all these planets at once - but damn, it's not easy.

I'm not sure where her headquarters would be. Back in California? Working out of DC? Surely offices both places (since she has offices both places) but, if forced to choose, I'd pick DC as her headquarters. Her October 2019 SSR for Washington isn't too impressive and, where it IS impressive, it's negatively so: natal Saturn 65' from square MC. Her October 20, 2020 SSR moves the pieces around and the only new emphasis is that it puts all three natal malefics on angles, her Neptune rising the closest. If she has her birthday in San Francisco, the 2019 SSR puts a Mars-Saturn square on angles, the 2020 SSR has nothing much.

Her SSR does have progressed Moon square Uranus for the convention: a surprise!

For Election Day, transiting Mars crosses her Ascendant. The only other exact transit is Venus opposite her Neptune.

Her SLR a few days before the election has a Moon-Mercury opposition square Saturn. Of these, Saturn is 7° above Asc conjunct Pluto. Uranus squares Asc. If she's running and in Washington, I'm pretty sure she doesn't win.

For inauguration day, Neptune opposes her Venus as the only partile transit. Her SLR on inauguration day has Venus square Asc, so something makes her smile that day, but there's not much happening.

For the sake of beating Trump, I hope she's not on the ticket.

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:57 pm

Which, of the four, leaves Bernie. First, I do not think a Leo-Pisces can beat either Trump or Pence. But, looking at the charts...

For the convention he has Neptune square his Jupiter. This could be inspiring and uplifting effect, and most often is deflated ambitions. (As Steve says, time will tell.) Pluto squares his Venus very closely. Jupiter has pulled away from his Moon, so advantage he thought he saw on the way in evaporates. This all looks like bombast from the sidelines.

Election night, Pluto transits square his Venus, Neptune is off his Jupiter and not quite back to his Sun, Jupiter once more is leaving his Moon (to the minute! - any advantage the day before expires). That's it. Nothing that suggests winning.

For inauguration, Pluto squares his Mars exactly (almost to the minute!), the Mars-Uranus conjunction is exactly square his Pluto. At least it looks like he's deep in the mix of what I expect will be a volatile, threatening day.

His SLR just before the convention (July 12) has Venus setting and some Neptune (or, rather, a lot of Neptune, since natal Neptune is on MC). He's pretty happy that week.

His SLR just before election, if cast for Washington, is pretty boring. (Does anyone remember where he had his headquarters last time?)

His SLR the day before inauguration has Mars-Uranus, Jupiter on WP, and Mercury setting. The Mrs-Uranus + Jupiter aspects his Pluto on EP

Despite my misgivings, this highly volatile but also positive chart is the best of the set.

If he gets the nomination, I hope is reported birth time is right!

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:05 pm

There are strong rumors out of the Biden camp that they are exploring (but have not settled on and may not pursue) two unusual strategies. As a way of playing to Joe's strengths while addressing concern over his age and his greater centricity (compared to the left-bent of the party at the moment) the plans being explored include:

1. Announcing a running mate selection near the start of the campaign, making it someone from the young, more liberal, more diverse emerging leaders of the Democratic party.

2. Committing to only one term - a 'save the nation" approach with a hand-off to a selected young, liberal, diverse heir.

There are disadvantages of this to weigh against the advantages; but one thing it has done is stir discussion about who that "heir apparent" VP might be. One strong lead is that Biden has recently lunched with, and then generously praised, Stacey Abrams.

Abrams was born in Madison, Wisconsin December 9, 1973, hour unknown. Against Biden's Scorpio-Aries luminaries, and in contrast to Trump's Taurus-Scorpio luminaries, she has a Scorpio Sun and Taurus Moon.

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:59 pm

Latest Vegas odds for 2020 Election:

Dem Nominee:
Sanders + 400
Harris +400
ORourke +300
Biden +250

Party to win 2020 Prez:
Dem -160
Rep +120

Odds to win Prez:
Trump +125 (keeps on becoming more of a Vegas favorite), but note: Vegas has the Dem Party as favorite to win Prez!
Biden +500
ORourke +700

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:20 pm

Biden has had bad week. The man with a partile Sun-Venus conjunction rising in Scorpio has been accused of making a woman uncomfortable by kissing her hair.

His biggest transit right now is Uranus conjunct his Moon. While this might be "disclosures," I'd mostly expect it to unleash him. The main thing of the last week has been Mars slowly opposing his natal Sun and Venus. I expect he'll have some more trouble over the next couple of weeks as Mars crosses his Uranus, Descendant, and Saturn.

If he was in Wilmington for his last SLR, it has Sun-Mercury-Neptune conjoined and rising - totally on target for public embarrassment. For the same location, though, his March 23 Demi has Jupiter rising

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Wed May 01, 2019 1:09 pm

The only betting odds my bookie is offering for the 2020 election year are:

DEMOCRATIC PARTY-115
REPUBLICAN PARTY-115
Dead Even!

I have bet 100.00 $ on a Dem win based on Trump’s individual charts.

I will post individual candidates odds as soon as they are re-posted on the betting board.

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Tue May 07, 2019 7:59 am

There has been a sizable shift in odds for the 2020 Prez election, with favored jump for the Dem's.

DEMOCRATIC PARTY-160
REPUBLICAN PARTY+110

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Mon Jul 29, 2019 8:48 am

Latest Vegas Odds for 2020 Prez:

Dem -125
Rep -115

The Dems are slight favorites.

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:49 am

I have a good friend who closely follows political news. I don't follow political new, only watch and listen to good rock-roll music and good movies. He called me yesterday and said of all the candidates running for Democratic Race for President he was most impressed with Kamala Harris debates image with the way/manners she presented herself to the public.

Since we have an AA timed birth for Kamala, I did a quick astrological looks-see for her future, and the first astrological technique I calculated for her were her Solar Arcs timed to the Democratic Convention July 13-16 2020. I was astounded with what appeared to my eyes/astrological mind!!!

Her Solar Arc Natal Full Moon partile conjunct her Natal Asc.

Her Solar Arc MC partile conjunct her Natal Full Moon and as a coincidence her AS/MC midpoint.

Her Solar Arc Asc partile conjunct her Natal Mars! If elected Dem Candidate for President, she will certainly be able to carry the fight (Mars) to Trump for President!!!

Folks---this is HUGE! A very rare time in her life when her solar arc natal angles (MC) partile conjunct her natal Sun-Moon Full Moon.

Opinions???

Kamala's bi-wheel link below. Inner Wheel Natal; Outer Wheel Directed Solar Arcs.

https://imgur.com/QnzP5iY

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:57 am

Interesting! How does the rest look, especially transits and solar and lunar returns for the convention?

And then the most important one: How does it all look for election day?

I remember when I looked at her chart very briefly before, it didn't look good for the election. Also, as a Libra-Aries it would be a rare situation if she could succeed a Taurus-Scorpio and a Cancer-Taurus.

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:07 am

Jim asked:

Interesting! How does the rest look, especially transits and solar and lunar returns for the convention?

I have not yet looked in detail for other techniques, only the solar arcs.

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:50 am

Latest Vegas betting odds for 2020 Prez.

Dem Party -120
Rep Party -120
Dead even!

2020 US Presidential Election odds to win:

Trump -125 (The clear favorite)
Biden +400
Warren +600
Harris +900

The rest of the announced field odds to win are very high long shot shot odds to win, 4 & 5 figures.

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:51 pm

For the first time this year, Vegas has posted betting odds for DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR THE 2020 ELECTION. Here are the top 4 favorites:

Warren +250
Biden +300
Sanders +650
Harris +700

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:31 pm

Interesting!

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:02 pm

Jim wrote:

Interesting!

Yes. I remember well-- in July 2015 when Trump threw his hat into the Presidential Ring--Vegas came out with his odds at: +3000 to win Prez; and +1500 to win Rep Candidate.

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:02 am

As of Aug 28, 2019---Vegas has the Dems as slight favorites to win 2020 Prez Election:

Democratic Party: -130
Republican Party: -110

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:52 am

This morning's Vegas odds to win Prez:

Trump -125
Biden +400
Warren +550
Harris +1200
Sanders +1600

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:07 am

Steve, can you remind me...? What were the final Vegas odds on the 2016 presidential election? (Am I remembering correctly that they had narrowed but still showed a significant advantage to Hillary, who did indeed win the popular vote?)

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:13 pm

Jim wrote and asked:

Steve, can you remind me...? What were the final Vegas odds on the 2016 presidential election? (Am I remembering correctly that they had narrowed but still showed a significant advantage to Hillary, who did indeed win the popular vote?)

I remember this fairly well. These odds may not be exact but are very close in 2016. 2 weeks before the 2016 Prez election, Hillary was running around - 400 to win. This means she was 4-1 to win! On the Day of the election I saw her winning odds jump to - 900, which was the highest winning odds I ever saw for Prez Candidate. This means on election day Hillary at one point was 9-1 to win election. Then about 8:00 PM on election night Vegas was still posting betting odds and by then the odds on Hillary winning drastically dropped very fast to even!!! In other words, Vegas saw before the news media---Trump was reversing the odds for winning. Then from 8:00 PM up to the media's official announcement Trump had won the Prez, I saw Trump's winning odds go from even up to - 800, 8-1 to win before the final announcement he had won. I know several major pro bettors bet heavy money on Trump winning when they saw the betting odds rapidity reversing from Hillary a huge - 900 favorite to even betting odds between 7:00-9:00 pm election night, CST.

Here is what I expect to see happen weeks before the 2020 election. I expect the right wing media to be telling their audience there is no way Trump can lose, just as the left wing media was telling their audience there was no way Hillary could lose the 2016 Prez election leading-up to the election. A-lot of this will depend on the Vegas odds leading up to the 2020 election after the Democratic Convention in July 2020. In other words, we have good chances of the seeing the reverse of what happened in 2016 where certain left-wing media sources were telling their audience there was no way Trump the Clown could beat Hillary for Prez, we have high chances for seeing certain right-wing media sources telling there is no way Trump will lose the 2020 election to the Clown on the left. It all depends on the betting odds going into last two weeks of 2020 election and the Dem Candidate-- because--do not doubt--the media sources follow closely Vegas betting odds, which sways heavily the psychologically how media sources report political news for Prez elections.

Why do I feel this way??? Because we see a potent Uranus-Pluto Paran in the 2020 Libsolar!!! I will have to check---but I believe the last time for a major sporting/betting contest I saw a Uranus-Pluto Paran (maybe mundo) was when the New York Jets played the Baltimore Colts in the 68-69 Super Bowl, and Vegas had the Colts an 18 point favorite and the sports media were saying there was no way Joe Namath, the Quarterback Clown for the Jets could win the Super Bowl. Joe Namath in very brash way promised his followers he would win the Super Bowl for em---kinda like Trump in his bragging brash manners promised his followers he would win Prez. Prominent Uranus-Pluto configurations are the # 1 astrological configurations for predicting major upsets in any type contest!!! Lets wait and see where the betting odds are 2 weeks before 2020 election.

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:23 am

As of today, the Reps are 2-1 favorites to hold control of the Senate after 2020 election:

https://markets.predictwise.com/politic ... ess-senate

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:53 am

DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR THE 2020 ELECTION
Wager Cutoff: 09/08/2019 23:00:00
Warren +200
Biden + 300
Harris +700
Sanders +800
Yang +800

Party to Win Prez:
Dems -125
Reps -115

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:34 am

New betting odds are out for the Dems Candidate. Andrew Yang has entered the picture with his campaign known for its popularity online, with The New York Times calling Yang "The Internet's Favorite Candidate".

Warren +200
Biden +250
Yang +750
Sanders +800
Harris +800

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:14 pm

New weekly betting odds for 2020 Election (Wager cutoff 9/23):

Party to win Prez:
Dem -125
Rep -115

2020 US Presidential Election:
Trump -125
Warren +400
Biden +600
Sanders +1500
Yang +1800
Harris +2000

Democratic Nominee:
Warren +200
Biden +250
Yang +800
Harris +800
Sanders +800

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:01 am

OK, I sincerely have a very important question to ask anyone about the 2020 Prez election. Presently, the top 5 Dem candidates according to Vegas odds makers to win 2020 Prez are:

Warren + 400
Biden +600
Sanders +1500
Yang +1800
Harris +2000

With all the other Dem candidates not on the above list, I seriously ask all who follow politics closely: Who not on the above list do you give a good chance to win Dem Prez? I ask this question because Vegas now has this 2020 Prez election set-up with their betting odds where if one out of the 5 above candidates won Prez---it would be impossible to lose money. Here is how with a betting example:

The betting odds for the Party to win Prez are:

Dem -125
Rep -115

The Dem Party is a slight favorite to win Prez. I could take 1,000 $ and bet the Rep-115 to win Prez. If the Dem won Prez I would lose 1,115 $. But I will take another 1000 $ and divide this 1000 $ into 5 separate betting units and bet on each of the 5 above Dem candidates with the following possible speculative bets:

280 $ for Warren +400 to win Prez—for a possible 1,120 $ win.
200 $ for Biden +600 to win Prez---for a possible 1,200 $ win.
75.00 $ for Sanders +1,500 to win Prez---for a possible 1,125 $ win.
200 $ for Yang +1,800 to win Prez—for a possible 3,600 $ win.
245 $ for Harris +2000 to win Prez---for a possible 4,900 $ win.

With the above bets, I have a total of 2,115 $ at risk and the worst outcome would be I win 5.00 $, but the best possible outcome I win 3,785 $.

Of course, If another Dem candidate besides the one's above wins Prez I lose 2,115 $. So, I sincerely ask again: Which Dem candidate running for Prez which is not on the above list do you guys/dolls thinks could win Prez. And, I sincerely ask how would you divide-up a 1,000 $ betting on the above 5 Dem candidates to win Prez?

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:29 am

SteveS wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:01 am With all the other Dem candidates not on the above list, I seriously ask all who follow politics closely: Who not on the above list do you give a good chance to win Dem Prez?

The only name that isn't on that list and should be is Buttigieg. I don't think he'll get the Prez nom, but he's solidly in the running for VP.

Of course, If another Dem candidate besides the one's above wins Prez I lose 2,115 $. So, I sincerely ask again: Which Dem candidate running for Prez which is not on the above list do you guys/dolls thinks could win Prez. And, I sincerely ask how would you divide-up a 1,000 $ betting on the above 5 Dem candidates to win Prez?

Yang is least likely to last. (I like the guy - he's one of several smart people that still probably won't get the nom.)

At this point, politically speaking, Warren has the best shot. Bernie won't get it, Biden keeps staying on top but one wonders how long his momentum can last (but he's the only leading candidate with the chart to succeed Trump), Harris might re-energize, Buttigieg keeps impressing everybody with few taking seriously his chance for the nom (but he could) - which is why I think he's strong VP material.

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:49 am

Thanks Jim, I really appreciate your Dem opinions--it will help me make a more informed wagering decision.

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:32 pm

There is news today that Sanders' campaign may be caving faster than expected. It's premature to say that it is, but this is worth reading:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... ar-AAHrmkq

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:45 pm

Jim, what does Holly and Trent mean with the following statement:

...because I want to make sure the strongest candidate unmasks Biden...

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:37 pm

SteveS wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:45 pm Jim, what does Holly and Trent mean with the following statement:
...because I want to make sure the strongest candidate unmasks Biden...

That quote is attribute to Rafael Shimunov, a former national creative director for WFP and 2016 Sanders volunteer. He apparently feels that there is something to unmask about Biden - more broadly, that he has to be unseated - and wants the strongest candidate to take on Trump.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sanders wins in New Hampshire, but I also think we shouldn't make much of it. He's from Vermont and that "neighbor" matter helped him a lot three years ago. He's historically as strong there as in his home state, more or less. That means that anything other than a very strong showing for him in NH suggests he's lost a lot of steam this time around.

Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:47 pm

Warren is also a NH "neighbor" and should also make a strong showing there. I'd expect Warren, Sanders, Biden, but the top two might switch.

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:02 pm

Jim wrote:

That means that anything other than a very strong showing for him in NH suggests he's lost a lot of steam this time around.

Got it, thanks Jim.

And Jupe, thanks for your input--i respect your feel for Dem politics.

Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:17 pm

You know I'm a Goldwater Republican, right?

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:40 pm

Jupe wrote/asked:

You know I'm a Goldwater Republican, right?

Hell no, I didn't know this! You know I am a true independent, right? But my favorite Presidents were Bill Clinton and JFK.

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:59 am

Latest Vegas changes:

For Prez; top 7:
Trump -125
Warren +300
Biden +500
Sanders +1300
Yang +1600
Harris +1800
Buttigieg +2500

For Dem Nominee; top 6:
Warren +150
Biden +200
Sanders +700
Harris +700
Yang +700
Buttigieg +1300

Party to win Prez, still the same, Dem slight favorite to win Prez.
Dem -125
Rep -115

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:17 am

New betting odds out for 2020 Prez--some interesting changes:

Top 7:
Trump Even
Warren +300
Biden +400
Sanders +1500
Buttigieg +2500
Yang +2500
Harris +5000

Going on the assumption Trump will be running against either Warren or Biden at their same above odds, there would be absolutely no way DC's Uranus/Pluto 2020 Libsolar Paran would be symbolizing a stunning/shocking upset in the 2020 election. Trump will have to be at least a 4-1 favorite to win the 2020 Prez, and he is now an 'Even' odds to win Prez.

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:43 am

Again, I can take the above posted betting odds in the last post on the 2020 Prez election and make bets and win/break even no matter the outcome, as long as one of the Dem Candidates running which is not in the above posted list does not win Prez.

1,000 $ on Trump to win at even money. If Trump loses the 2020 Prez, I lose 1,000 $
350 $ on Warren to win at +300. If Warren wins Prez, I win 1,050 $
250 $ on Biden to win at +400. If Biden wins Prez, I win 1,000 $
100 $ on Sanders to win at +1,500. If Sanders wins Prez, I win 1,500 $
100 $ on Buttigieg to win at +2500. If Buttigieg wins Prez, I win 2,500 $
100 $ on Yang to win at +2500. If Yang wins Prez, I win 2,500 $
100 $ on Harris to win at +5,000. If Harris wins Prez, I win 5,000 $

With the above bets, the worse that can happen--I break even. The best which could happen--I win 3,100 $. This type of betting is defensive betting--hoping one of the long shots candidates wins. With the above Vegas betting odds, Vegas is telling us there are very high %, either Warren or Biden will be the Dem Candidate.

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:55 am

Vegas odds for Dem Nominee in 2020; Top 6:
Warren +120
Biden +175
Sanders +800
Yang +1000
Buttigieg +1000
Harris +1500

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:02 am

This weeks new betting odds on election 2020. Vegas has taken the betting odds for the Dem Candidates running for their party's nominee off the betting board. I will post as soon as I see these new odds come back on the betting board.

The only betting odds Vegas is showing for election 2020--- is for which party will win Prez. Since the impeachment inquiry, the Dem Party has slightly increased their favored odds:

Dem -135
Rep -110

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Fri Oct 11, 2019 1:45 pm

US bookmakers are still not posting odds on the Dem Candidates, but here are the latest UK odds for US 2020 election.

Dem Candidates to win their candidacy:
Warren Even
Biden 4-1
Clinton 12-1 (even though she has not entered race)
Buttigieg 12-1
Sanders 12-1
Yang 16-1
Harris 16-1

For Prez:
Trump 5-4 favorite
Warren 3-1
Biden 8-1
Sanders 16-1

Party to win:
Dem: Even
Rep: Even

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:39 am

Latest US betting odds for 2020 election for Prez:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wash ... rens-surge

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:47 am

New Vegas odds on 2020 Prez:
Trump Even
Warren +175
Biden +500
Buttigieg +1000
Yang + 1200
Sanders +1500
Pence +2500

SteveS · Post by **SteveS** » Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:21 am

New Vegas Odds:

DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR THE 2020 ELECTION:
Warren +120
Biden +175
Sanders +800
Yang +1000
Buttigieg +1000
Harris +1500

2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - ODDS TO WIN:
Trump -110
Warren +200
Biden +500
Buttigieg +1000
Sanders +1500

PARTY TO WIN THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:
Dem -130
Rep -110