The 2020 stock Market Panic

[Jim Eshelman]

Steve, I'm trying to figure out exactly which date we should use for measuring the "event" of the market panic that is now underway (with successive days of 7% drops or so, yesterday's fall into 20%+ territory, and today opening another 7% down). - I know this might level off (or might not level off soon), but we already have an "event" of note.

There is no shortage of astrological indicators. The collapse began (speaking broadly) with Saturn-Pluto conjunct Sun on a Capsolar angle, Saturn-Pluto conjunct Moon on a Caplunar angle, and transiting Saturn crossing the U.S. Capsolar MC,

But - as I'm surely going to have to add this to the "economic panic" chapter in SMA, what do we pick? Do we use the top (was that 2/12, a month ago today?) as the beginning of the fall? Or is there another day, another specific event that measures it better (the way that Lehman Bros. bankruptcy marks the "beginning" of 2008's collapse in the popular mind)?

Your thoughts...

PS - The dates this year marking the greatest percentage changes in the DJIA was March 9 -7.79%.I've wondered about using close of market on that day.

[Jim Eshelman]

Here are the events from which I've measured prior events:

Panic of 1819 - The date cotton prices dropped 25% in a single day (things were already shaky; this, in turn, started bank failures).

Panic of 1837 - This one was pretty clear. On a single day, NYC banks stopped redeeming paper money with full-value of gold. Panic occurred at once.

Panic of 1857 - This one was vague. International banking was strained. The collapse of Ohio Life Insurance & Trust seemed to me the trigger event and exposed an underlying frailty to what was thought to be a booming economy.

Panic of 1873 - With a European crisis already underway for months, the Jay Cooke bank collapse forced a closure in the NYSE for 10 days.

Panic of 1893 - Finding a single trigger point was quite difficult for this, but bankruptcy of a major railroad seemed to me the most critical day.

Panic of 1907 - Various events came to a head on the day that (after some bank collapses) the stock market was tipping into a downward plunge.

1929 Wall Street Crash - Measured from the date of the market cave-in (which then continued for several days).

1987 Stock Market Crash - A single day brought a gutting severe drop in the stock market.

2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis - Lehman Bros. bankruptcy

[SteveS]

Jim wrote and asked:

Steve, I'm trying to figure out exactly which date we should use for measuring the "event" of the market panic that is now underway...Or is there another day, another specific event that measures it better (the way that Lehman Bros. bankruptcy marks the "beginning" of 2008's collapse in the popular mind)?

Great question Jim. I do have a specific astrological date (day) that may offer you some alternatives for selecting “exactly which date” for starting this market panic for Sidereal Astrology investigations. As far as a fundamentally “specific event that measures it better”---for now-- no—I do not recognize a “specific event that measures it better.” I have several phone calls to make and will get back to this thread later for more possible in-depth observations. I too have been thinking about this Jim. .

[Jim Eshelman]

February 21 also looks like a significant "got my sled near the top of the hills and started sledding down" day.

[Jim Eshelman]

Today the DJIA dropped 2,352 points (or about 500-600 points more if you consider that the Fed forced the price up 500-600 points halfway through and then the market dropped all over again). This was the 4th largest daily drop (by percentage) in market history, only exceeded by three days that (as the phrase goes) are remembered in (market) infamy:

1. 1987 Oct 19: -22.61%
2. 1929 Oct 28: -12.82%
3. 1929 Oct 29: -11.73%
4. 2020 Mar 12: -9.99%

[SteveS]

The market is telling me it is discounting fundamental news to hit many months into the future for an economic Depression , probably the worst of it in 2021. I hope I am dead wrong but if right it is short lived. Lets watch closely the monthly economic numbers for the next several months.

[SteveS]

Jim, have you ever seen this by Alfred Witte?:

The Sun indicates the day of the event
The Moon indicates the hour of the event
The MC indicates the minute of the event
The AS indicates the place of the event
The MC/AS indicates what is happening 'at this time and place'

Jim, I strongly feel the DAY of this financial panic began at a moment (minute) on the DAY of Feb 18 because of what I explained at this link:

It may be possible using Witte above beliefs to take day Feb 18 and put Neptune (Panic) either at the MC or MC/AS (yes, I know how you are cringing ) to maybe experiment with a viable chart for this financial panic.

Only you may be able to possible see a viable chart to the minute on the day of Feb 18 when this Panic began.

[Jim Eshelman]

Jim, have you ever seen this by Alfred Witte?:

The Sun indicates the day of the event
The Moon indicates the hour of the event
The MC indicates the minute of the event
The AS indicates the place of the event
The MC/AS indicates what is happening 'at this time and place'

Yes, I'm well-aware of this. I think it's a bit simplistic, but one immediately gets where he's going on it.

Jim, I strongly feel the DAY of this financial panic began at a moment (minute) on the DAY of Feb 18 because of what I explained at this link:
viewtopic.php?f=28&t=3014&p=29568#p29568

Can you summarize? We're slammed at work. BTW I'm looking for economic arguments of "when," not astrological ones - On all of the other market events we've picked the date before running the mundane charts for it so that it's clear we aren't stacking the deck.

What was the market thing that happened at the end of the 2/18 session that makes this the event?

[SteveS]

Jim asked:

What was the market thing that happened at the end of the 2/18 session that makes this the event?

It was not a specific market 'thing.' It was specifically a major astrological 'thing'--a major 90 year Solar Arc which obviously fired off with McWhirtter's NYSE Chart using CEO Carter's axiom:

If at any time that a directional body (Solar Arc) or angle (Solar Arc) is in aspect to another by direction, either of these bodies forms an aspect by transit with either of two directional bodies or angle, then this transit will excite the direction into immediate operation.

Here is a specific explanation for what happened with the NYSE chart using the 2020 Solar Arc for the NYSE with Carter's above quoted astrological axiom:

NYSE SUN 05Tau22
2020 Solar Arc NYSE ASC 05Aqu17

On Feb 18 with t Sun at 05 Aqu we saw this transit with the SUN (the exact day) “excite” this major 90 year NYSE Solar Arc into “immediate operation” with a specific downward thrust DAY that was the actual beginning DAY for this panic. Since this DAY (Feb 18) the market has collapsed. Jim, do you see where I am coming from astrologically? I damn sure know the astrological timing/reason from a major Solar Arc in the NYSE which began this panic. But I don't really know if we can come-up with viable chart timed to the minute for this DAY to be labeled: "The Beginning of the Panic". But the only way I know which may be possible to get a viable chart for this Panic would be to use Witte's astrological timing indicators. But hey, its no big deal--it is what it is.

[Jim Eshelman]

Jim asked:

What was the market thing that happened at the end of the 2/18 session that makes this the event?

It was not a specific market 'thing.' It was specifically a major astrological 'thing'--a major 90 year Solar Arc which obviously fired off with McWhirtter's NYSE Chart using CEO Carter's axiom:

Unfortunately, I have to reject that, then. In proving/demonstrating the system, we can't start with a great chart and work backwards.

Thanks, though.

I'll go back and dig through the graphs and reports and come up with something.

[SteveS]

I will be looking forward to what chart you deem as the main chart.

[Jim Eshelman]

I'm going to sort out this question today because I'm working on the financial panics section of SMA. Here is the Wikipedia page collating information on the market drop.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash

I'm also going to have to completely redo the original study on individual days with greatest gains and greatest drops, since these have all changed by now.

[Jim Eshelman]

Steve. I'm settling on a date nearly identical to the one you picked. I'm picking market close (4:30 PM) on February 20, 2020.

I pick this for two reasons: First, the money community is starting to label 2/20/2020 as the official start of the 2020 stock market crash. That became evident at the end of trading (and then more evident at opening the next morning). An alternative could be 2/21 because it was a Friday, registered the big dip, had more destabilizing oil and virus news, but the start of the sled ride downhill was EOB 2/20.

The only other date to consider would be opening bell March 9, which made that day the new "Black Monday." This really started the market drops, and they deepened later in the week. But we'd already been in correction territory for a couple of weeks so it's hard to call it the start, though it did get extremely steep.

Having picked 2/20, and then done some spot checking of how the charts will look, there is one fascinating thing: I think we're going to see that 2/20-2/21 is the breaking point (on more than one count - market and virus) for the nation as a whole, and that's when things peaked in charts for Washington. Then, though markets were already dropping, the steeper drops (and highest trading volumes and record breaking market shifts) began with 3/9 - when the charts hit a peak of badness for Wall Street/NYC!

Off to work this up.

[SteveS]