2020 Prez Election

[SteveS]

Prez odds as of Oct 21:

Biden -165
Trump +125

The Reps are still +225 (underdog) to take more than 50 seats in the Senate.

[SteveS]

Biden -230
Trump +165

[Jim Eshelman]

And, so far this morning, following White House Chief of Staff remarks yesterday and the 60 Minutes broadcast last night, the DJIA has fallen 520 points this morning.

[Jim Eshelman]

We all know that polls can be wrong and polls can change rapidly. Some have indeed been changing significantly (especially in the Senate races in Arizona, where a generous lead for the Democrat up until a week ago has switched to him seeming to be losing now, though by an amount within the margin of error; or South Carolina, where Lindsay Graham keeps flipping back and forth between winning and losing by small margins; or for some Presidential race close-calls like Florida and Arizona that keep moving back and forth).

Nonetheless, to the extent you can trust them, the polls in non-battleground states have been quite stable. They always narrow (the race gets closer) in the last couple of weeks, but they haven't changed much this time.

If you take the current (most recent) polls in each state, and count only states where one candidate leads by more than 5%, Biden has 279 electoral votes (with 270 needed to win). This map has been mostly unchanged for weeks.

If we credit each candidate with any state they are leading at the moment, no matter how small the lead, it's Biden 378 to Trump 143 - but, of course some of these could change and some of them are too close to be statistically clear. Most of them, though, have stayed pretty much the same all month. (Arizona and Iowa have been tied across various polls for several days. Texas is nearly a tie but, for the last few days has tipped blue, which would be a stunning reversal.)

[Jim Eshelman]

If we try to repeat this for the Senate race, we run into the problem that many states have no recent polls. To our advantage, though, the "missing" states are those that have very little question about the outcome - they nearly always vote one way and nothing unusual is happening this time.

If we take those races where somebody is leading in excess of 5 percentage points plus those where there are no recent polls but no real question of who is winning, it shows 48 Dems and 43 Reps in the Senate.

If you add all cases where polls show anybody ahead at all, no matter how small the gap, then you get 51 Dems and 48 Reps (and one undecided); but these are volatile numbers in some cases.

It's still a horse race.

[Veronica]

Jim said

"Its still a horse race."

Ah....
Yes it is.
You can say that again.

The urge/drive/ need for gambling, betting .......seeing the "Vegas Odds".......on things .......things that are so very important, so very personal....to some
And its treated as a parlor game and entertainment by those onloojers.

It almost makes me not want to vote because I know who ever I Vote for....Im just securing a winning ticket for some Vegas player who really couldnt care less about my beloved country.

[Jim Eshelman]

Today is the first day I've seen in the entire (post-convention) campaign when the most recent polls do not show Biden over 270 electoral votes based on states where someone has a lead in excess of 5%.

This may be a daily fluctuation. Not all polls are equal quality or equal neutrality. I don't have the resources to track trends in individual polls. But a bunch of new ones came in yesterday that, on balance, take Biden down a notch. For example, yesterday's Spry Strategies poll (which I don't know which may not be a major poll) shows Biden with only a 2% tie nationally, which is so far within the margin of error that it might as well be 0%.

Using only the most recent major poll in each state, regardless of who took it, and counting only states where one candidate is more than 5% ahead, Biden only shows 249 electoral votes (to Trump's 119).

This comes concurrent with other information showing how confidence in Biden. Yesterday, according to news reports I saw, British bookies posted 50-to-1 odds against Trump, which is in the same direction as the Vegas odds Steve has been posting (but a much larger gap). The stock market has dropped several points in the last three days (so far another 800 points this morning almost) and coronavirus cases are surging nationally. These are all pro-Biden statistics.

But from polls of how people say they have voted or are going to vote, for today at least, he is down a shocking amount.

[SteveS]

Today's odds:
Biden -200
Trump +150

[SteveS]

The seven most referenced Battle Ground/Swing States are all leaning toward Biden in Five Thirty Eight's recent polling as of today:
Arizona – Biden leads by 5 points
Florida – Biden leads by 2 points
Georgia – Biden leads by 1 point
Michigan – Biden leads by 8 points
North Carolina – Biden leads by 2 points
Pennsylvania – Biden leads by 5 points
Wisconsin – Biden leads by 9 points

[SteveS]

As of 11:30 AM Nov 3:
Prez:
Biden -215
Trump +150

Prop odds:
Wining the Popular Votes:
Biden -900
Trump +600

Total Electoral Votes:
Biden Over 310.5 +130
Biden Under 310.5 -180

# of votes (millions)
Trump Over 69.5 -195
Trump Under 69.5 +145

Biden Over 79.5 -180
Biden Under 79.5 +130

[SteveS]

Odds Shark hourly betting odds on Nov 3:

8:30 AM ET Trump +135 Biden -165
10:00 AM Trump +140 Biden 170
12:00 PM Trump +160 Biden -190
1:15 PM Trump +170 Biden -200

[SteveS]

Odds Shark:
2:00 PM Trump +180 Biden -210
2:30 PM Trump +175 Biden -205

My Book, 2:30 PM:
Trump +165 Biden -225

[SteveS]

Odds Shark:
3:45 PM Trump +170 Biden -200

[SteveS]

New Prop odds just hit the board:
Biden to win Prez & Popular Vote -205
Trump to win Prez & lose Pop Vote +200
Trump to win Prez & Pop Vote +500
Biden to win Prez & lose Pop Vote +3000

[SteveS]

Just woke up. Never in my entire life have I seen such crazy fluctuating changing odds on a Prez election as occurred last night/yesterday. The Bookies have not declared wining or losing tickets for this election. First column is for Trump; second column for Biden. This is wild stuff in the world of contests betting!

7:30 am ET +270 -390
2:00 am ET -240 +175
1:40 am ET -210 +155
1:25 am ET -180 +135
1:10 am ET -160 +120
1:00 am ET -145 +110
12:50 am ET -160 +120
12:30 am ET -165 +125
12:15 am ET -150 +115
12:10 am ET -180 +135
12:00 am ET -135 +105
11:50 pm ET -150 +115
11:40 pm ET -165 +125
11:30 pm ET -190 +145
11:15 pm ET -295 +215
11:05 pm ET -330 +235
11:00 pm ET -240 +180
10:45 pm ET -270 +200
10:35 pm ET -250 +185
10:20 pm ET -300 +220
10:10 pm ET -775 +450
10:00 pm ET -370 +260
9:40 pm ET -220 +155
9:35 pm ET -245 +180
9:30 pm ET -200 +150
9:25 pm ET -120 -110
9:20 pm ET -110 -120
9:00 pm ET +110 -145
8:50 pm ET +115 -150
8:45 pm ET +135 -180
8:35 pm ET +120 -150
8:25 pm ET +100 -130
8:15 pm ET -110 -120
8:00 pm ET +100 -135
7:50 pm ET +105 -135
7:45 pm ET +125 -155
7:35 pm ET +145 -175
7:30 pm ET +160 -190
7:25 pm ET +180 -210
7:20 pm ET +190 -220
7:10 pm ET +175 -215
7:00 pm ET +170 -200
6:00 pm ET +170 -200
3:45 pm ET +170 -200
2:30 pm ET +175 -205
2:00 pm ET +180 -210
1:15 pm ET +170 -200
12:00 pm ET +160 -190
10:00 am ET +140 -170
8:30 am ET +135 -165

[SteveS]

12:00 PM ET Nov 4th: Trump +160 Biden -190.

About back to where the odds began months ago and yesterday before the polls closed.

[SteveS]

8:20 AM ET Nov 5th:

Biden -575
Trump +360