How long will Kabul stand?

[Jim Eshelman]

With the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, it was only a matter of time before the resurgent Taliban forces would try to regain control - with every informed observer knowing that the answer to "when will they take over" was measured in weeks, not years.

As of this morning, Taliban forces have taken every major northern Afghanistan village in a ring surrounding Kabul. Presumably the plan is to move from these bases in a tightening circle that eventually will squeeze Kabul and prepare for a final assault.

I looked at all the current mundane charts for Kabul plus next quarter's Libsolar (effective mid-October). Fascinatingly, there are several charts centered on peace. As I dug further, I realized that all of these charts would be five star winners IF we took the mental position that the Taliban were the rightful rulers of Afghanistan (deposed by the U.S. two decades back) and their victory would be the victory of the nation and its people. I'm not saying that this is my perspective - I really don't have an opinion about what regime is better for Afghanistan - I'm just saying that this is the perspective from which all the charts make sense.

The current (July 23) Caplunar is fascinating with Jupiter rising opposed to Venus and Mars on Descendant - Venus-Jupiter is the closer aspect, but Mars is the planet within 1° of the angle. Battle raging is clear, but also an enormous bounty and benefit of the country. That this Venus-Jupiter-horizon falls exactly along the royal star Regulus in paran to Aldebaran on IC is not lost on me.

This week's Liblunar has more uncertainty about relationships. Neptune rising is strongest, though Venus is moderately angular on Descendant and Mars a bit further away. People are surely reassessing who their friends are.

Pluto retrograding briefly into Sagittarius - which, for nearly two decades, marked religion-based imperialism - provided the easy context for their recovery.


But I began this search to consider the question of WHEN (not if) the Taliban would overtake the capital and re-secure control of the country. I think I didn't have to look further than the August 20 Caplunar, which oversees a new four-week period from that date. Uranus is stationary and within 1° of Midheaven. Saturn is on WP. That's ripe for regime change. Also, though more widely foreground, Sun opposes Jupiter within 0°00. This is a mark of victory (for someone!) and for the establishment of a royalist regime. (That probably only means strong-arm theocratic control, but one wonders if there won't be a new Caliphate declared.)

Mars squares Kabul's Capsolar Asc a day or two before the Caplunar, which makes sense for a troop surge and hard battle. Mars then won't be back to transit another angle (Capsolar MC) until September 9. Sun crosses Cansolar Midheaven on August 20 - the Sun-Jupiter opposition! - which, again, strikes me as something akin to the declaration of new leadership and governance, perhaps in the form of declaring a new Caliphate. CapQ MC crosses Capsolar Mars-Saturn on August 20 also, consisting with a military overthrowing and great destruction.

So, on the "you never learn if you don't stick your neck out" principle, I'm calling August 20 as the day the Taliban overthrows the current Afghani government and takes control of Kabul.

PS - I'm not forgetting that these are the people who destroyed those mountain-high Buddha statues

[Jupiter Sets at Dawn]

The Taliban is seven miles from Kabul and closing fast. They may choose to stand off till the Marines leave. They may not.

The rightful rulers of Afghanistan are the tribal leaders. We left them with weapons and training. I think they'll let the Taliban stretch themselves out so far that they put themselves into raiding party status, and take over running the place as each little tribal land, just like in much of African. The Taliban will come out, harass the locals, kidnap women, and get chased away again by groups of tribes working together. That's how it used to be in Afghanistan till we got the wind up about Al Kaida being there. That's pretty much how it is in Pakistan too.

It's how it is here too, except we organized on geography instead of blood ties or religion, and were able to organize smaller geographic units into larger ones and those into larger ones still.

[Jim Eshelman]

I was far too conservative in this prediction. Kabul and the Afghan government have fallen. I'll gather details this morning and write them in an appropriate place, either here or as part of a concluded event. So for, I've only read headlines, not details.

The biggest thing I got wrong: They made the move in 24 hours, not on August 20 as predicted.

The biggest thing I got right: So far, it's been peaceful and they've announced they want to keep it that way. I saw (and cited) the peacefulness of the whole thing (called the correct tone of the period, it seems); I just didn't judge that this was the way the transfer would occur.

What we don't know: Things happening between now and August 20. That is still a day when significant steps and transfers may occur. (On the other hand, they may have already transferred power since the last headline I read.) Hindsight, as usual, will clarify where the astrologer served astrology well or poorly.

[Jim Eshelman]

Updates from this morning. (After this is done, I might transfer it - now, or over the next few days - into a different thread.) I'm particularly looking for exact times of these events.

Los Angeles Times, 3:17 AM PDT (2:47 PM in Kabul). Headline: "Taliban fighters enter Kabul and await a 'peaceful transfer' of the Afghan capital." The "entered the outskirts" of Kabul on Sunday, 8/15, and "said they are awaiting a 'peaceful transfer' of the city after promising not to take it by force." People are panicking and fleeing, especially from government offices - using helicopters to the U.S. embassy (which is preparing for evacuation with 4,000 U.S. troops on the way, destroying documents and records, etc.). The "lightning speed of the push" has been shocking: People expected Afghan forces would hold up far better after "years of U.S. training and billions of dollars spent." President Ghani is "reported to have fled the country," leaving a "power vacuum" that everyone expects the Taliban will quickly fill. Thousands raided cash machines yesterday, people boarded up against looters, and people are locking themselves down to await what happens next. "At night, the streets turned quiet."

New York Times, 8:23 AM PDT (7:53 PM in Kabul). Headline: "The Afghan president Ashraf Ghani is reported to have fled the country, with the Taliban now inside Kabul, the last government stronghold." besides his personal safety (yeah, I'd have gotten out of town, too!), this was anno0unced as being necessary to avoid a bloody coup (probably an overstatement and face-saving, but probably some truth in it).

New York Times, 9:34 AM PDT (9:04 PM in Kabul). Headline: "The Afghan government has collapsed. After two decades of war with American-led forces, the Taliban's conquest of the country is all but complete." President Ghani has fled the country. Taliban "entry into Kabul effectively sealed the insurgents' control of the country." Afghan leaders are talking with the Taliban about peace4 terms. [From other reports: They had already been in ongoing negotiations about the future of Afghanistan for months.] U.S. military "raced to evacuate diplomats and civilians." This reiterates that the "government collapsed on Sunday." Taliban announced at 6:30 PM local time that "their forces were moving into police districts in order to maintain security in areas that had been abandoned by the government security forces," and insist they are providing protection, not entering homes, not hassling people, and to guard against "theft and robbery" - they are maintaining a posture of peacefulness. Evidently soon after that, "Taliban fighters, meeting no resistance, took up positions in parts of the city," and were seen streaming in by sunset (6:41 PM). - The president, his wife, and "two close aides" have departed by plane for Uzbekistan.

Ah: "Earlier in the afternoon, Interior Minister Abdul Sattar Mirzakwal announced [on Facebook 2:00 PM] that an agreement had been made for a peaceful transfer of power for greater Kabul, and that his forces were maintaining security." This isn't transfer of the government, but of the city, to guarantee "There will be no attack on the city." There is a 9 PM curfew.

CNN, posted or updated 10:42 AM PDT (10:12 PM in Kabul). Headline: "Terror groups could reconstitute in Afghanistan sooner than expected, top US general says." This article mostly focuses on responses in Washington. It emphasizes that groups like Al-Qaeda could reconstitute there rapidly. (U.S. had expected it would take two years.) Politics are flying on all of this of course, e.g., Rep. Kevin McCarthy predictably calling this "the worst outcome possible." Secretary of State Blinken "repeated that the administration had little option but to withdraw beginning on May 1 because of a deal made by the Trump administration, which would have resulted in resumed attacks by the Taliban on US and coalition forces amid the militant group’s nationwide offensive." Secretary of Defense Austin said the Pentagon has planned for “a number of potential outcomes,” but that “lack of resistance that the Taliban faced from Afghan forces has been extremely disconcerting.” - That's a common refrain (from Biden on down): We trained the {bonk} out of them, spent billions of dollars on them, they were in strong condition, had "a modern air force, good equipment, and weapons," and they simply aren't defending themselves. He added, "You can't buy will and you can't purchase leadership. And that's really what was missing in this situation."

CNN, posted or updated 11:10 AM PDT (10:40 PM in Kabul) Headline: "Taliban take control of presidential palace in Kabul." They are "assuming control of the Afghan capital" and have taken control of the palace. The palace was empty and Taliban had announced it "would begin entering areas of the city where the government officials and security forces had abandoned their posts." The article reiterates a lot of the details regarding peaceful policing presence - the Taliban is certainly trying to establish a sense of security and safety (which is no easy task since they are deemed by many as the danger). They announced earlier in the day, “Our forces are quietly entering the city, they won’t bother anyone, government employees both civilian and military should be assured that no one will harm them, no Mujahid is allowed to enter people’s houses, or hurt or bother anyone.”

In a concurrent article, British PM Johnson stated the obvious this morning: "It's clear there is going to be very shortly a new government in Kabul, or a new political dispensation."

[Jupiter Sets at Dawn]

Starting about 11AM Eastern, Kabul Airport is taking fire.

[Jim Eshelman]

Starting about 11AM Eastern, Kabul Airport is taking fire.

I read that the U.S. embassy was telling people not to head for the airport since it was taking fire. 11:00 AM EDT (8 AM PDT) would be 7:30 PM in Kabul, not quite an hour after sunset.

[Jim Eshelman]

So... though things are happening incrementally, and what I'm about to say could change any moment... there is no full transition to a new government yet. Kabul, as a city, has been transferred, but not the country.

I suppose I'm waiting for an event like the moment the Taliban raises its flag over the governmental area - as they routinely do - or an announcement of a signed transfer of power.

Will already in the zone of transiting Mars square Capsolar MC in Kabul, which I referenced above, in the initial post. I said that in these few days before the Capsolar it would mark a troop surge and battle, though the situation seems much tamer (more peaceful) than that. The Mars transit runs from August 15-19, exact on the (Afghan time) early morning of August 18.

I don't think the relative peacefulness of this should be missed, including the professed intention and focus on peaceful transfer. The Cansolar, overseeing the current quarter, has Venus 1°31' from MC, with other, moderate angularities (all about 5°) of Mars, Jupiter, and Uranus (Mars is in orb of conjunct Venus). The current Caplunar has a close Venus-Jupiter opposition across the horizon, all very close (with Mars nearby). The Liblunar is Neptune-dominated (and things are indeed chaotically) though Venus (4°06') and Mars (5°18') are also foreground.

Kabul's CapQ today has transiting Pluto on WP-a and ingress Uranus on Zenith, ingress Jupiter still within orb of Dsc but fading, and Dsc heading into orb of Saturn (four consecutive days) as today progresses.