Re: Data for the origin of the Republican Party

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Sat May 13, 2017 2:00 am

Origin of the Republican Party

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Sat May 13, 2017 2:01 am

This explains that Sarah Palin thing

Post by **Jim Eshelman** » Sat May 13, 2017 2:02 am

I'm not at all sure that this would be useful for that kind of prediction. (I briefly thought about that possibility too.) Additionally, there is the problem that national elections aren't really localized, so using returns is a problem.

However - theory aside - please do test this! I suggest, though, that you focus on the biggest "turn-overs" only - big events, not ordinary ones. For example, the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan was also a general Republican take-over that routed long-term, solidly entrenched Democrats in Congress as well - that's a Republican landmark date. Another might be the "flip-overs" of the 1994 and 2006 elections when the Republicans took over (1994) and lost (2006) control of Congress in mid-term elections.