The 2022 Midterm Elections

[Jim Eshelman]

(This is a spin-off of a discussion Steve started on my Libsolar thread. This is the form in which I posted it this morning on a predominantly Tropicalist Facebook mundane astrology page. Discuss away!)

The outcome of next week's mid-term elections has been unusually difficult for me to assess due to (what seem to me to be) strongly conflicting messages. I'd like to lay these out both as a 'workshop' example of the difficulties of navigating many mundane astrology considerations and to engage others in the process. At the end, I give a "best fit" example of something that might match all the messages. (This is adapted from an ongoing discussion on the Solunars forum.) - Warning: This is much longer than a Facebook post should be.

Common sense & history remind us that the normal expectation of mid-term elections is that the party in power loses. With Democrats holding the White House plus majorities in both houses of Congress, the reasonable (default) expectation is that they lose ground and, therefore, lose their slim majorities in both houses. This is as likely a trend as, say, expecting it will get colder in the winter and warmer in the summer. Astrologers should expect things to go this way unless something very significant suggests an aberration.

Solar Ingresses. Sun's entry into Sidereal Capricorn mid-January is the master mundane chart of the year for each location (unless its angles do nothing to distinguish that location). This year, for Washington, it is marked especially by a Sun-Pluto conjunction on angles. Then, Sun's ingress into Sidereal Libra mid-October again put Sun-Pluto on angles suggesting that this is the quarter (mid-Oct 2022 to mid-Jan 2023) that the primary message of the year will erupt. The main question, then, is: What does the close Sun-Pluto aspect on angles mean?

I was quite precise in my late 2021 forecast for 2022 (when Biden's poll numbers were still high): The year is an accounting cycle for the Biden administration. Republican gains seem certain in the midterm elections. People demand freedom from control or leadership they feel is failing them. - This appeared to be astrology confirming common sense and the message of history.

A colleague (SteveS) has been reminding me that Pluto this strong anticipates shocking events that stun our sensibilities. He and I use astrology to handicap major sporting events (the method runs 70-80% correct: BTW, before the World Series began, we picked Philadelphia to win in the 6th game) and a Pluto-dominated chart for a big game suggests reversals and turn-overs with the game usually flipping the odds and going to whoever Vegas thought would lose. Applying that logic to the election, he rightly questions whether these Pluto-dominated charts could possibly mean Dems lose significant ground, since that would be "Ho, hum, business as usual, nothing startling or stunning to see here."

I disagree only to the extent that the BIG overthrows, topplings, and reversals usually take Uranus + Pluto (2016, 2020), not Pluto alone. But he could, of course, be right. I'm also giving more weight to Pluto aspecting SUN as meaning the toppling of whoever is currently at the top. - This is where the uncertainty about the pending elections begins...

Biden's Lunar Returns. As I was preparing my new monthly U.S. forecast, President Biden's solar and lunar returns threw up even larger question marks. His current and upcoming lunar returns are almost bizarre if one assumes Dem losses: His current (October 25) demi-SLR is strong and positive. Then, one day before the election, he has a new Sidereal Lunar Return that has no transiting or natal planet foreground. It's effectively dead, giving us nothing to read at all for arguably one of the more important months of his life. (Non-angular partile aspects hint at sadness and disappointment, the only thing I have to run with.) One game-changer might be that he is out campaigning the day before Election Day and not in Washington - that he gets a different return chart than expected. (If that happens, I'll write a last-minute addendum once we can see what his actual lunar return looks like.)

Biden's New Solar Return. The strongest astrological argument for Dem wins is Biden's 11/20/2022 Sidereal Solar Return. It's the only SSR during his present four-year term that has an angular transiting Jupiter (in fact, the only one that has anything noteworthy except Neptune angular). How is the next year going to be a transiting Jupiter year for him - heightened prestige, success, uplifting of stature - if he has an opposing majority in Congress? (There are ways this result could happen if he has an opposing Congress, but they are less likely. One normally would think it would require an aligned Congress.)

Biden's Next Demi-Lunar Return. Then... one day after his positive 11/20 Jupiter culminating SSR, he has a demi-lunar return that is strong, fabulous, drawing out his best: In close angularity and a mundane Grand Square, he has transiting Uranus square Pluto interlaced with natal Mars square Jupiter. I've already posted a full interpretation online and will post it here as 11/21 approaches, but the gist is a powerful, predominantly positive chart showing much change, perhaps even revolutionary conditions, to which he responds with valor, strength, and enthusiasm. He's riding a high wave of action for the two weeks beginning November 20 or 21!

What in the heck? (How can this be?) Presuming he just LOST badly, how is he feeling this strong and enthusiastic? - We could, of course, have totally new circumstances unrelated to the election but, otherwise, this chart makes no sense AND it comes a day after a Jupiter culminating solar return.

Here is my dilemma about the election outcome: Common sense and "political overthrow" charts say Dems will lose, but two weeks later we see Biden entering a strong year with unusually powerful, positive shorter-term charts - feeling at once challenged, invigorated, and positive.

A possible explanation. Is it possible that, even with these local Congressional elections, we won't know the outcome of the elections (as a whole) for two weeks - until Biden's birthday or later? In that case, the "nothing" in Biden's 11/7 SLR is that we don't know anything. If we only learn the outcome on or after November 20, then all of these various, seemingly contradictory messages could indeed be true at once: A shocking outcome, a last-minute overtime touchdown that flips to Dem GAINS in Congress confirmed as Biden celebrates his 80th birthday.

Also consistent with that: I have forecast the whole month of November (but especially up to 11/20) as including volatile, rebellious rage following the election. Part of the speculative picture, then, would be weeks of oppositional rage and even revolutionary assaults as the election results are slowly, tediously resolved.

I'm not saying it's so. I'm not backing out of my forecast a year ago of Dem losses (soon, I'll be proven right or wrong about that). I'm saying it's one reading of the mixed messages.

Your thoughts?

[SteveS]

Jim wrote:

A possible explanation. Is it possible that, even with these local Congressional elections, we won't know the outcome of the elections (as a whole) for two weeks - until Biden's birthday or later? In that case, the "nothing" in Biden's 11/7 SLR is that we don't know anything. If we only learn the outcome on or after November 20, then all of these various, seemingly contradictory messages could indeed be true at once: A shocking outcome, a last-minute overtime touchdown that flips to Dem GAINS in Congress confirmed as Biden celebrates his 80th birthday.

This explanation makes good astrological sense to me with all of Biden's conflicting charts. The only other Solar Ingress chart I have to compare for a possible delayed election result is the 2000 Libsolar when the "hanging chads" in the state of Fl threw the final prez election result into the legal systems. We see in the 2000 Libsolar angular Venus & Pluto along with angular Jupiter--- probably symbolizing the higher justice system for the Supreme Court to decide the election. Angular Pluto in the 2000 Libsolar most certainly symbolize a "stunning/shocking" final election outcome.

Another factor i noted for the 2000 Libsolar was the MC/IC axis just happened to be in most important degrees (Vargottama) in the Sidereal Zodiac, which was considered by ancient Hindu/Vedic tradition to act as if planets holding Vargottama degrees were in some type of exaltation/strengthen position. But of course this brings in the very important fixed stars of Aldeberan/Antares.

[Jim Eshelman]

This explanation makes good astrological sense to me with all of Biden's conflicting charts. The only other Solar Ingress chart I have to compare for a possible delayed election result is the 2000 Libsolar when the "hanging chads" in the state of Fl threw the final prez election result into the legal systems. We see in the 2000 Libsolar angular Venus & Pluto along with angular Jupiter--- probably symbolizing the higher justice system for the Supreme Court to decide the election. Angular Pluto in the 2000 Libsolar most certainly symbolize a "stunning/shocking" final election outcome.

It's possible that Biden doesn't have conflicting charts: If he is travelling the day before Election Day, he may have a totally positive SLR. However, we won't know this until the last minute.

The 2000 Libsolar is interesting. Far too positive for my tastes, except it does show a time when grace and dignity prevailed during election outcomes. The U.S. Capsolar and Libsolar (for decades now) have Pluto on Capsolar Midheaven every four years when the president is elected - wonderful symbolism! - so the main issue is what aspects that culminating Pluto each year. Jupiter was actually the strongest planet in the 2000 Libsolar (0°18' off IC) and, yes, I think this matches the court action - but also it makes the main aspect of the chart the Jupiter-Pluto opposition. With two benefics as the two most angular planets, this 2000 Libsolar would have to be rated a positive chart, except the closely angular Venus is opposite a non-angular Saturn. Jupiter-Pluto is the closest aspect. I've always taken this as meaning some version of "overthrowing the government," or "overthrowing the election."

The many years, the Libsolar has had nearly exactly the same angles as the Capsolar, which I think is one reason the Libsolars have seemed so much stronger they pull similar contacts). The more emphatic chart is the 2000 Capsolar with Pluto 0°08' from MC! It also has Mars within a degree of EP-a and Mars square Pluto. Also a partile Moon-Saturn conjunction.

For hanging chad, I remember the lunar ingresses kept emphasizing Mercury-Saturn aspects.

Regarding the fixed stars, the 2000 Libsolar RAMC was 249°25' and Aldebaran crossed IC in right ascension at 248°59', 0°26' earlier. If measured in PV longitude, it was 0°44' off IC. Antares has different latitude, so it was several degrees off the angle mundanely.

[SteveS]

Jim wrote:

Jupiter was actually the strongest planet in the 2000 Libsolar (0°18' off IC) and, yes, I think this matches the court action - but also it makes the main aspect of the chart the Jupiter-Pluto opposition. With two benefics as the two most angular planets, this 2000 Libsolar would have to be rated a positive chart, except the closely angular Venus is opposite a non-angular Saturn. Jupiter-Pluto is the closest aspect. I've always taken this as meaning some version of "overthrowing the government," or "overthrowing the election."

Never would I have suspected the angular Jup-Pl 2000 Libsolar to manifest as it did with the controversial “hanging chads” Florida situation to throw the outcome of this election to the Supreme Court. Going back and looking at Bradley’s work I think angular Jupiter-Pluto should be allowed for politics as a potential “marker of crises by forcing grave issues out into the light of day, for all to see and judge.” I have a colleague with a non Jup-Pl conjunction Natal and this aspect seems to fit Bradley’s above words when brought to the angles with other important charts with my colleague.

I think the angular Venus-Pluto in the 2000 Libsolar simply symbolized DC political relationship (Venus) were involved in “stunning/shocking” manner (Pluto), which could again repeat in some way with the Venus-Pluto Paran in the 2022 Libsolar, but not in a “crises” manner like the 2000 Libsolar.

Anyway--food for thought for future DC Ingress Charts.

[SteveS]

Checking the latest unbiased predicting services for this mid-term election, it seems the Reps are gaining a-lot of momentum with high % expectations for the Reps to eaisly take majority in the House & Senate. Time will soon tell.