2020 Prez Election

Developing & testing the application of Sidereal Mundane Astrology to Picking Winners in sports competitions.
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:04 am

After an absent of betting odds for 3 weeks—new Prez odds posted today. Buttigieg is now one of the Dem's favorite tied with Biden.

2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - ODDS TO WIN
Trump -150
Biden +600
Buttigieg +600
Warren +800
Sanders +1400

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jim Eshelman » Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:56 am

Mayor Pete is taking over the over-65 demographic, especially in Iowa. (It's a perfect strategy for an Indiana mayor who is smart, well-mannered, served in the military, and and matter-of-factly embraces his religion to expect to do well in Iowa.) His latest big hit in the senior sector is his "Grey New Deal."

Last poll, he's 9% ahead of Biden in Iowa among the seniors - the most reliable voting demographic. Analysis says he not only speaks their language but reminds them of a favorite grandson that they're proud of (or a fantasy grandson they'd be proud of).

He's definitely got a shot in Iowa, a chance to beat Biden (but probably not neighbors Sanders or Warren) in NH, and he's doing surprisngly well in South Carolina - despite having not been able to pull any support from black voters.
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:48 am

Jim wrote:
Last poll, he's 9% ahead of Biden in Iowa among the seniors - the most reliable voting demographic. Analysis says he not only speaks their language but reminds them of a favorite grandson that they're proud of (or a fantasy grandson they'd be proud of).
Very interesting! Right now I think he has a good chance of becoming the next Prez given the malefic astrological symbolism with Trump for election time.

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:18 am

Latest Vegas odds for 2020 Prez election:
Trump -170
Biden +400
Sanders +550
Warren +1200
Buttigieg +2000
Bloomberg +2000

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:47 am

I'm not sure if it matters, but I noticed that the chart for the exact Saturn-Pluto conjunction (1/12/20, 11:59 AM EST) occurs with Saturn-Pluto exactly on MC through New Hampshire.
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:44 pm

Latest odds:
DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR THE 2020 ELECTION:
Biden +170
Sanders +225
Warren + 600
Buttigieg +1000
Bloomburg +1000
Yang +1200
Clinton +2500
2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - ODDS TO WIN:
Trump – 200
Biden +300
Sanders +400
Warren +1500
Bloomberg +1500
Buttigieg +2000
Yang +3000
Clinton +4000

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:37 am

Bloomberg is the only Den Candidate who has made a significant move to win Dem Candidate with the betting odds. Moved from +1000 to +600. Advertisement money buys a-lot of votes :) !

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:17 am

More odds movement than normal occurring with Dem Nominee:
Biden +150
Sanders +150
Warren +500
Bloomberg +500
Buttigieg +800

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2020 Democratic nomination

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:57 am

Yesterday, Warren & Klobuchar got a dual endorsement from New York Times for the Democratic nomination. We have an AA time for Klobuchar and there is one floating around for Warren that has been useful in the past: Does it show this event?

I don't know where she was, so I'm only taking straight transits. (Please, everyone help watch where she is on June 22, her birthday.) For the 2 PM time I'm watching, Pluto (conjoined by Saturn) remains in orb of natal IC, though Saturn has departed. Transiting Neptune is 45° from her Jupiter (06'). The non-partile Uranus transit to her Jupiter would be fitting if it fell on, say, SLR or Demi-SLR angles for where she was yesterday (or where she was when the return set up). That's all. - Not very helpful.

Does anyone know where she was January 18? Late that night her Demi-SLR set up. It doesn't seem to have Sun-Uranus to her Jupiter angular anywhere in the USA.

Klobuchar had t Sun sqq. r Mercury. I suppose that is sufficient for an endorsement.
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Iowa

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:01 am

The Iowa Caucuses are February 3. Using an estimated wrap-up time of 8:00 PM CST, and not knowing where anyone will be that night, here are transits to the candidates for the likely conclusion. They all depend, of course, on the accuracy of the birth data.

JOE BIDEN (A data). t Pl sqq. r Pl 13', t Ne ssq. r Mo 07', t Ur conj. r Mo 50', t Sa op. r Ju 49', t Sa sqq. r Sa 48', t Ju ssq. r Ve 18'. He gets a really big surprise! Given Saturn opposite his Jupiter, it probably is a discouraging surprise.

BERNIE SANDERS (C data). t Pl sq. r Ve 01', t Ne op. r Su 29', t Sa sq. r Ma 37', t Ju sqq. r Sa 18', t Ma op. r Ju 34', t Ma sqq. r Pl 21', t Me sq r Ur 30'. Also surprised. Bernie's big problem (and maybe his advantage) is that Neptune opposes his Sun and he doesn't know who he really is right now. These transits re-raise health concerns. The news is bad for him, but not entirely bad.

ELIZABETH WARREN (C data). t Ne ssq. r Ju 42', t Sa sqq. r Ma 21', t Ju sq. r Ne 57'. Saturn to Mars looks like unsuccessful competition, and the rest like idealism and unclarity. Not as bad as the others, but not winning.

PETE BUTTIGIEG (A data). t Pl sq. r Sa 52', t Ne ssq. r Ve 34', t Ur sq. r Ve 09', t Ju sq. r Ma 04'. This not only suggests successful competition but seems to show him really happy. (Jupiter finishes crossing his Ascendant soon before.)

AMY KLOBUCHAR (AA data). No transits.
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New Hampshire

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:31 am

The New Hampshire primary is February 11. Using an estimated wrap-up time of 8:00 PM CST, and not knowing where anyone will be that night, here are transits to the candidates for the likely conclusion.

JOE BIDEN (A data). t Sa op. r Ju 04', t Sa sqq. r Sa 15', t Me sq. r Sa 14'. This is quite bad for him. I think that, after NH, he's out of the race unless he holds out for South Carolina where he expects to do very well. (He has no particular transits for the SC primary. Warren has quite excellent transits there if the birth time is correct, and Bernie at least loses Neptune to his Sun.)

BERNIE SANDERS (C data). t Pl sq. r Ve 22', t Ne op. r Su 45', t Ju sqq. r Ur 25'. I very much distrust this Neptune opposition to his Sun. Jupiter to Uranus is nice for the few days, and he is expected to do very well in NH (next to his home state), so he may do OK.

ELIZABETH WARREN (C data). t Ne ssq. r Ju 58', t Sa sqq. r Me 09', t Me sq. r Ma 45', t Me sq. r Me 48'. Warren is also from an adjacent state and should do well, but the transits suggest disappointment (not to mention irritability).

PETE BUTTIGIEG (A data). t Ne ssq. r Ve 18', t Ur sq. r Ve 20', t Ma conj. r Ne 37'. The last transit is ugly. There's no reason to think Pete will do particularly well in NH anyway, so it's hard to think what could give Ma-Ne-level feelings, and popularity does seem to be holding well. As Saturn gets closer to his Sun, this likely will fail; for now, NH gives some sort of very extreme emotional reaction, probably from a sense of attack.

AMY KLOBUCHAR (AA data). t Ju sqq. r Mo 50'. Only one transit, but it's a seriously good one. Expect her to outperform expectations.
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Super Tuesday

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:00 pm

The big primary day is Super Tuesday, March 3. There is significant reason to think the nomination will be resolved by then, especially since this year it includes California, Texas, and 12 other states, including the home states of Warren, Sanders, and Klobuchar. Using an estimated wrap-up time of 8:00 PM PDT, and not knowing where anyone will be that night, here are transits to the candidates for the likely conclusion.

JOE BIDEN (A data). t Ve sq. r Pl 44', t Me sq. r Su 14'. Also, t Ne is nearing his IC and t Su crosses his IC for the 48 hours prior but has just left orb as these contests are over. If Biden is still in the race, he is definitely in the limelight for the day, possibly suggesting some surges (at least in particular areas) or possibly showing his stepping aside.

BERNIE SANDERS (C data). t Pl sq. r Ma 16', t Ma sqq. r Ur 35', t Su sqq. r Pl 51'. t Su also squared his Jupiter for the 48 hours before, but now is gone. Unclear. There's a fair bit happening, it's a significant day for him. Pluto to Mars continues to concern me about his health.

ELIZABETH WARREN (C data). t Pl sqq. r Ma 32', t Ju conj. r IC 54', t Ma sqq. r Sa 34'. If this birth time is correct, she's the big winner of the day; if not, then quite the opposite. In any case, notice Saturn is approaching her Jupiter, so she will weaken (for a time?) soon.

PETE BUTTIGIEG (A data). t Ne ssq. r Ve 47', t Sa conj. r Su 27', t Ve conj. r IC 23'. Saturn has caught up to exact conjunction with his Sun. Probably this means defeat; however, if it doesn't, then it means he is on a destiny path of great fundamental importance to his life and we shouldn't doubt him going forward. Venus crosses his IC and the next day, a the dust settles, opposes his culminating Jupiter. Despite exact Sa-Su, I can't rule him out: Rather, what happens this day will tell us what the universe is ruling in and out for him for the campaign.

AMY KLOBUCHAR (AA data). t Sa sqq. r Me 10', t Ma sqq. r Mo 10'. Not good. She does quite poorly.

MICHAEL BLOOMBERG (AA data). I assume Bloomberg will be in the primaries by this date, it seems his only real strategy. Saturn will have crossed his Dsc over the prior months, so he may have had the wind taken out of his sales. Nonetheless, if he's in, here are the transits: t Ve sq. r Ve 31', t Me sq. r Ur. 55'. This seems slight, but hardly against him.
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Election Night transits

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:34 pm

For Election night, use 0:00 EST for November 4, 2020 (about an hour after the polls close on the West Coast).

BIDEN has t Uranus sq. r Pluto 13', t Saturn op. r Jupiter 10', t Saturn sqq. r Saturn 21', t Mercury sq. r Jupiter 19', t Mercury sqq. r 08'. I don't like that Mercury-Saturn square to natal Jupiter-Saturn at all, especially Saturn exactly opposite his Jupiter. This looks losing, although the Uranus-Pluto is quite intriguing.

SANDERS has t Pluto sq. r Venus 42', t Mars ssq. r Uranus 34', t Sun ssq. r Neptune 51'. None of this looks good for him: Humiliation and bad surprises.

BUTTIGIEG has t Pl sq. r Saturn 03' (breakthrough or breakdown?), t Uranus on r IC 35' (surprise!) op. r Jupiter 24' (really good surprise!), t Mars two or three days past op. r Mars (usual for last-week combat), t Sun ssq. r Neptune 53' (nail-biting). He could definitely win with this.

WARREN has t Pl on r IC 18', t Ju on r IC 54' (these both depend on the accuracy of a birth time of uncertain provenance which, however, has been working pretty well), t Sa sqq. r Mercury 03' (not winning, not being listened to), t Me on r EP (having something to say). If this birthtime is correct, hopefully she wasn't the candidate.

KLOBUCHAR has t Uranus op. r Neptune 38'. Again, her transits are so slight it seems she's not around. As it is, she has a reality upended a bit but little more.

BLOOMBERG Let's hope he's not the candidate since Saturn is on his Descendant, even though Venus is on his IC. Otherwise, nothing is happening.

TRUMP has t Neptune sq. r Uranus 36', t Uranus ssq. r Sun 25', t Saturn op. r Venus 23', t Mercury sq. r Venus 52' (sq. r Saturn 63' sep). Mostly, this looks bad for him, some being neutral, the Uranus being uncertain in outcome, and the Saturn seeming quite firm.
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Re: 2020 Democratic nomination

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:44 pm

Jim Eshelman wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:57 am
Does anyone know where she was January 18?
I think you mean Warren, but here's Klobuchar's schedual: (see below for Warren)
Saturday, January 18

ISEA Forum -- Senator Klobuchar speaks at 9:25 AM
Sheraton West Des Moines
1800 50th St. West Des Moines, IA 50266

Coralville Town Hall -- Doors open at 11:30 AM, program begins at 12:00 PM
Oakdale Ballroom, Coralville Marriott
300 E. 9th Street
Coralville, IA 52241 https://www.mobilize.us/iowaforamy/event/203042/

Clinton Town Hall -- Doors open at 3:15 PM, program begins at 3:45 PM
**DUE TO WEATHER -- NEW LOCATION**
Rastrelli's
The Avanti Room
238 Main Ave
Clinton, IA 52732 https://www.mobilize.us/iowaforamy/event/203038/

Davenport Town Hall -- Doors open at 6:30 PM, program begins at 7:00 PM
Mississippi Room, RiverCenter
136 E. 3rd Street
Davenport, IA 52801 https://www.mobilize.us/iowaforamy/event/203259/
from https://blog.4president.org/2020/2020/0 ... -2020.html

Warren's schedule:
Please note: This schedule is subject to change as additional events are confirmed and depending on the schedule for impeachment in the U.S. Senate.

Saturday, January 18th

2020 ISEA Legislative Conference

9:00 a.m. CT (program begins), 9:45 a.m. CT (Elizabeth’s estimated speaking time)

West Des Moines Sheraton
1800 50th Street
West Des Moines, Iowa 50266

New event: Planned Parenthood Action Fund Fireside Chat with Elizabeth Warren

5:00 p.m. CT (event begins)

A private residence in Des Moines

Creative Visions, Des Moines NAACP & Urban Dreams Block Party with Sen. Elizabeth Warren

6:30 p.m. CT (doors open), 7:00 p.m. CT (event begins)

Urban Dreams
601 Forest Ave
Des Moines, IA 50314

General public can RSVP here.

Please note: This schedule is subject to change as additional events are confirmed and depending on the schedule for impeachment in the U.S. Senate.
from https://blog.4president.org/2020/2020/0 ... -2020.html

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Re: 2020 Democratic nomination

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:46 pm

Pete Buttigieg turns 39 years old January 19, 2021, with a new SSR that is at once powerful and devastating in Washington, DC. Should be he elected, I hope he can resist coming to town immediately.

His same SSR for South Bend has Venus rising within a degree, Jupiter square MC within a degree, but with Mars-Uranus (square the Jupiter) on IC and Saturn exactly on EP - not perfect by any means, but more outright positive than the chart for Washington.

In any case, his transits for inauguration (a really rough inauguration chart with a really rough Capsolar - no matter who gets elected) would be:

t Uranus conj. r IC 1°13'
t Saturn conj. r EP 0°42' [Saturn ssq. Neptune 0°00']
t Jupiter sq. r MC 0°35'
t Mars conj. r IC 1°18'
t Venus sq. r Mars 0°50'
t Mercury conj. r Mercury 0°57'
-- t Mercury ssq. r Uranus 0°14'
t Moon sq. r Sun 0°36'
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Re: 2020 Democratic nomination

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:53 pm

Jupiter Sets at Dawn wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:44 pm
Jim Eshelman wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:57 am
Does anyone know where she was January 18?
I think you mean Warren, but here's Klobuchar's schedual:
Yes, I meant Warren for her Demi-SLR setup. Kolbuchar's SLR was January 7 and her Demi January 19. Looks like January 19 in the evening (around 8 PM CST) she was in Waukee, IA. This does give natal Venus on MC, her natal Sun-Pluto square strongly foreground, and some lesser stuff that all is consistent with her getting an endorsement.

It looks like Warren spent the whole of the 18th nd 19th in Des Moines and had her Demi-SLR there. For the 2 PM birthtime (provenance unclear, it has worked quite well for several events), it doesn't really show anything consistent with the endorsement. That does not give a further reason to be confident about the time.
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:18 am

New weekly odds just hit the board.

2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - ODDS TO WIN:

Trump -190
Sanders +400
Biden +500
Bloomberg +800
Warren +2500
Buttigieg +4000

DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR THE 2020 ELECTION:

Biden +150
Sanders +175
Bloomberg +500
Warren +1000
Buttigieg +1200

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Wed Jan 29, 2020 6:41 am

New odds changes:
For Prez:
Trump -160
Sanders +300
Bidden +600
Bloomberg +1000
Warren +3000
Buttigieg +3000

For Dem Nominee:
Sanders +130
Bidden +150
Bloomberg +400
Warren +1000
Buttigieg +1000

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:29 am

Here is a most interesting link documenting how the rapidly changing betting odds occurred on election night Nov 8 2016 between Clinton and Trump. On Election night Nov 3 2020, I will being doing my best to document the betting odds as they change.

https://www.oddsshark.com/entertainment ... 16-futures

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Re: 2020 Democratic nomination

Post by Jim Eshelman » Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:30 pm

So far, with 63% of the Iowa caucus results released, this is exactly right: Buttigieg leads ("successful competition... really happy"), Sanders close behind ("surprised... news is bad for him, but not entirely bad"), Warren a little farther behind those two ("unsuccessful competition... not as bad as the others but bot winning"), and Biden a distant fourth ("a really big surprise... probably a discouraging surprise").

This may hold or it may change. Most of the vote in now is from urban areas, and Buttigieg is expected to do better in rural areas; so he'll probably widen his gap.

It's no surprise that the mayor of South Bend would do well in Iowa - he talks their language like a native. Next week is New Hampshire with two New England Senators among the top candidates.
Jim Eshelman wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:01 am
The Iowa Caucuses are February 3...

JOE BIDEN (A data). t Pl sqq. r Pl 13', t Ne ssq. r Mo 07', t Ur conj. r Mo 50', t Sa op. r Ju 49', t Sa sqq. r Sa 48', t Ju ssq. r Ve 18'. He gets a really big surprise! Given Saturn opposite his Jupiter, it probably is a discouraging surprise.

BERNIE SANDERS (C data). t Pl sq. r Ve 01', t Ne op. r Su 29', t Sa sq. r Ma 37', t Ju sqq. r Sa 18', t Ma op. r Ju 34', t Ma sqq. r Pl 21', t Me sq r Ur 30'. Also surprised. Bernie's big problem (and maybe his advantage) is that Neptune opposes his Sun and he doesn't know who he really is right now. These transits re-raise health concerns. The news is bad for him, but not entirely bad.

ELIZABETH WARREN (C data). t Ne ssq. r Ju 42', t Sa sqq. r Ma 21', t Ju sq. r Ne 57'. Saturn to Mars looks like unsuccessful competition, and the rest like idealism and unclarity. Not as bad as the others, but not winning.

PETE BUTTIGIEG (A data). t Pl sq. r Sa 52', t Ne ssq. r Ve 34', t Ur sq. r Ve 09', t Ju sq. r Ma 04'. This not only suggests successful competition but seems to show him really happy. (Jupiter finishes crossing his Ascendant soon before.)

AMY KLOBUCHAR (AA data). No transits.
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:48 am

After the confusion in Iowa, here are the new Feb 4th odds for Prez:
Trump -140
Sanders +350
Biden +600
Bloomberg +1000
Buttigieg +2000

The following link has more details about 2020 Prez odds including how the odds have changed the last 5 weeks up to Feb 4.
https://www.oddsshark.com/other/2020-us ... ds-futures

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New Hampshire primary

Post by Jim Eshelman » Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:54 am

The Iowa Caucus fiasco was visible in hindsight from the mundane charts, but not in a way that I likely would have understood the portents if I had looked in advance. (There was a lot of Uranus, mostly connected with Mercury: cyber problems, phone line calamities, low level tech attacks.)

Nonetheless, perhaps it is worthwhile looking at the New Hampshire primary finish next week; say, for 9 PM February 11, centered on Concord.

For the year, Uranus squares MC (0°12') in the CAPSOLAR, while Moon squares Pluto (0°10') in mundo. This is really interesting because, by conventional thinking, New Hampshire's outcome should be easy to pick with one Senator from Vermont (who did very well there four years ago) and one Senator from Massachusetts sure to be at the top. However, the Capsolar suggests that New Hampshire's contribution for the year is to surprise us and through us for a loop. (Transiting Uranus remains in orb of square MC for the primary.)

The most recent non-dormant lunar ingress is the LIBSOLAR, with Jupiter 0°44' from EP. Not sure what to make of that, but it looks positive (despite Moon's square to Saturn-Pluto, shared by the world).

But things are likely to be really heated: CapQ Descendant conjoins transiting Mars. Raging figures and even fisticuffs may manifest (something rare for NH). Also, despite the double Uranus from the Capsolar, the CanQ places transiting Uranus on Midheaven. We are likely to be startled.

As mentioned above, going from the candidates' transits (not knowing where they will be), things go quite badly for Biden; Sanders has the uncertainty of that Neptune transit to his Sun but Jupiter transits Uranus so he probably will do quite well; Warren looks irritable and disappointed; Buttigieg has weird transits which show popularity sustained but very emotionally messy stuff that's hard to anticipate exactly; and Klobuchar should outperform expectations. (She may be the surprise of the evening.)
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Buttigieg natal

Post by Jim Eshelman » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:17 pm

Testing the birth time he personally gave out, his Demi-SLR for Des Moines - the exact day of the caucus - is quite positive. Uranus exactly sets square his Venus (which squares Ascendant). Natal Jupiter closely squares MC. Sun is moderately foreground. It's a winning chart and he won.
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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by SteveS » Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:56 pm

New weekly wagering odds:
Prez:
Trump -200
Sanders +300
Bloomberg +700
Biden +1200
Buttigieg +1200

Dem Nominee:
Sanders +120
Bloomberg +250
Buttigieg +450
Biden +450
Warren +1500

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Re: 2020 Prez Election

Post by Jim Eshelman » Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:03 pm

This one puzzles me a bit.

No puzzle: Bernie ranks highest at the moment.

No puzzle: Bloomberg looks strong. However, as astrologers we can observe that the U.S. has never elected an Aquarius luminary except Washington and Lincoln. They are archetypal presidents for epochal times, to be among the immortalized few quintessential presidents and unless a president is going to fall in that category we wont elect them. Thus Romney lost. Thus Hillary lost.

Puzzle: Buttigieg won the Iowa caucus (now decisively 14 delegates to Bernie's 12) and is tying Bernie in half the polls for New Hampshire (and closing in on the other polls). I'm surprised they don't set better odds based on that. (Maybe Vegas isn't watching 538 this year.)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/el ... hampshire/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bu ... pens-next/
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