More economic collapses [Financial]
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:23 pm
In addition to the very serious economic collapses we've already studied, there are lesser ones. I just read an article on "30 Times History Has Tanked the Stock Market." Here are a few other events I want to look into.
Full financial crises have been especially marked by angularities of Saturn, Neptune, and Pluto, and Moon aspects with Sun, Neptune, and Saturn. The most common foreground non-lunar aspects are Mars-Saturn and Saturn-Neptune, followed by a serious of obviously financial-themed aspects like Sun-Jupiter, Sun-Saturn, Mercury-Mars, and Mars-Uranus.
The Credit Crisis of 1772
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_of_1772
A partner in the Neal, James, Fordyce & Down banking house in London lost 300,000 pounds shorting East India Company stocks. On June 8, 1772 he fled to France and the firm collapsed, igniting panic in London. Confidence in the banking and credit systems crumbled. Twenty other banks fell like dominoes by late June. The crisis spread to other Scotland and (as a result of the East India Company being hit hard) the Netherlands. British colonies in America (especially in the South) were impacted because of the extensive credit debt they held on British banks. (Cascading consequences literally oled from this to the Boston Tea Party.)
The Panic of 1792
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1792
March 9, 1792, NYC
Another credit crisis occurring in March and April 1792. The Bank of the United States (formed about a year earlier, in February 1791) raised money by selling debt. Concurrently, several prominent bankers undertook "rampant speculation" in which they "attempted to drive up prices of US debt securities and bank stocks, but when they defaulted on loans, prices fell, causing a bank run" in March 1792. (March 9 is when the first key banker stopped making payments.) Alexander Hamilton as Secretary of the Treasury led political and financial maneuvers that stabilized the market. New York seems to be the center of all the activity, and the difference from there to nearby capital Philadelphia would have been small.
The Gold Con: Black Friday 1896
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Friday_(1869)
During the Grant administration, two speculators, Jay Gould and James Fisk tried to corner the gold market. President Grant was selling U.S. It was a straightforward maneuver: Treasury gold was sold weekly to pay down the huge national debt and generally fuel the economy in the wake of the Civil War. Gould and Fisk (fortified with insider connections to the White House) persuaded the Secretary of Treasury to suspend U.S. gold sales, then bought all the gold they could from the New York gold market, driving up prices. Grant discovered what they were doing and ordered $4 million in gold be released September 24, 1869, plunging gold prices downward, smashing Gould and Fisk's scheme, triggering a months-long Wall Street panic which (thanks to Grant's steady handling) did not turn into a depression.
The Panic of 1901
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1901
May 8, 1901, 1:00 PM, New York City
This first crash ever of the New York Stock Exchange began in a battle over control of the Northern Pacific Railway. There were no winners because, not long after the dust settled, the company was shut down under the trust-busting Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890. On May 8, 1901, the battle triggered a market crash with frantic panic to sell on the exchange floor. -- I probably need to research the fine point more before writing this up in detail, but this is enough to study it astrologically.
Florida's Real Estate Craze 1926
Florida's real estate bubble of the '20s, and part of its eventual collapse, is discussed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_l ... _the_1920s
This started weakening in 1925 and, according to the above article, the pivot was then the sinking of the Prinz Valdemar in Miami harbor (you can read about it at the link). the 1926 Miami Hurricane in September further gutted the boom (followed by the Okeechobee Hurricane in '28, all on a path toward the Great Depression in 1929).
This doesn't seem like an event to study as part of a financial collapse, though I have a new shipwreck and hurricane to look into
I'll skip this as a financial event. Here is the original newsfeed item that put me on its track: "A large migration to Florida in the 1920s increased the Sunshine State’s population; but the housing market couldn’t meet the demand, and property values swelled. The bubble burst and values shot down the same year as a massive hurricane, plummeting the stock market and establishing a precursor to the Great Depression."
Recession of 1937-38
https://www.federalreservehistory.org/e ... of_1937_38
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1937–38
Described as May 1937 to June 1938. GDP dropped 10%, unemployment hit 20%. As recessions go, it was milder, but ill-placed as America thought it was coming out of the Great Depression. Probable causes were "a contraction in the money supply caused by Federal Reserve and Treasury Department policies and contractionary fiscal policies." The first article above goes into careful detail on how these conspired to create rapid deflation and general contraction.
There seems no exact timing to analyze in detail, but we can look at larger trends in, say, the solar ingresses in May 1937 and into the center of the next year.
The 1962 Kennedy Slide aka The Bear Market of 1962
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennedy_Slide_of_1962
This was a stock market decline from December 1961 to June 1962. Of six months, the S&P declined over 20%, the Dow 5.7% (which, at the time, was the second-largest point decline on record). Only after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 10/62 did the market fully recover.
Coming out of a period (post-depression and post-WW II) of rapid, vast economic expansion, the market suddenly reversed in December 1962, apparently as a natural correction to a decade of extreme growth. (This would seem to structurally resemble our current 2018 situation IMHO.)
The markers of this slide were a top in the S&P on December 12, 1961 that bottomed June 26, 1962 after a 28% drop. The market recovered and passed its prior peak a little about 14 month later on September 3, 1963.
1973-74 Oil Crisis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973–74_s ... rket_crash
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis
In 1973, President Nixon ended the Eisenhower era oil quota system that had favored purchasing cheap foreign oil. America was buying most of its oil overseas with significant reductions in American oil production. Organized Middle Eastern oil-producing companies (OPEC) then increased prices.
Parallel this, in 1971 Nixon pulled the U.S. out of the Bretton Woods Accord which had linked the dollar to gold prices. With a newly "floating" dollar (which other countries soon copied), the value of the dollar fell against foreign currency. This undercut OPEC nation income (they got less real value for the dollars they were charging), so they linked their oil prices to a fixed amount in gold rather than in dollars, causing the cost to increase.
Net effect: Oil prices shot up in 1973-74.
On October 6, 1973, Egypt and Syria attacked Israeli-held lands (the Yom Kippur War). Six days later, Nixon announced rapid delivery of weapons to Israel. Then, on October 17, 1973, OPEC raised prices, cut oil production, and declared an embargo against Israel's allies including the U.S. This embargo (and further oil production cuts) had worldwide economic impact, forcing a recession until the embargo was withdrawn in March 1974.
Consequent to this, the U.S. stock market experienced a bear market from the start of 1973 until the end of 1974. Bretton Woods withdrawal was certainly a main component. The oil wars either were an additional cause or at least made the market drops more economically painful.
I should study the Yom Kippur War separately. As an economic event, this may be difficult to study because it had such global impact, but I will attempt to frame it as a U.S. event. U.S. GDP growth dropped from +7.2% to -2.1%. Inflation rate increased from 3.4% to 12.3%. The 1973 Capsolar should be pivotal in this, in theory. I have to spend more time digging through this to figure out what date might concentrate the drop (I haven't yet found a target date.)
The Early '90s Recession
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_1990s_recession
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_199 ... ted_States
I don't see much that is concrete to dig into here. The date range for the U.S. is July 1990 through March 1991. The 1990 Cansolar had a Jupiter-Saturn opposition across the horizon tied into Sun, as almost its only feature. Not much to see here.
The 2000 Dot-com bubble
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble
At the peak of the Dot-com craze, several leading technology companies (including Dell and Cisco) began selling their holdings in their own stock on March 10, 2000. Beginning the next day (March 11, 2000) and lasting until October 9, 2002, the Dot-com crash hit, costing the stock market 10% of its value in the early weeks and a total of $5 trillion in value before it was over. Giant companies failed. Cisco and Qualcomm barely survived. Venture capital that had poured into startups with unprecedented ease for years now evaporated. By the end of the two and a half year bear market, NASDAQ has dropped to 22% of its previous value.
The 2010 One-Man Flash Crash
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Flash_Crash
This one is timed! On May 6, 2010, beginning at 2:32 PM EDT (lasting until 3:08), one man spoofed the stock market into dumping a trillion dollars. It was brief: Major marks crashed and sprang back almost at once. But, for a minute, the collective "everyone" was a trillion dollars poorer.
The Dow dropped nearly 1,000 points in minutes when Navinder Singh Sarao spoofed the market with fake sell orders that would manipulate stock outcomes to his advantage. After this happened, a lot of new rules were implemented to keep it from happening again.
2018 Inflation Scares
After a short drop beginning at the State of the Union address in late January, the period February 1-8 especially had sharp drops of about 2,700 points. The Dow dropped over 3,200 points (about 12%) before turning around and recovering three-fourths of the losses, then fell another 680 points in the last two days of February.
I think it too early to start examining the current market cycle. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that these drops marked some predictive successes. In particular, for the January 15 Capsolar we forecast a year of hardship, narrowing, and loss, and that recession was not unthinkable.
Full financial crises have been especially marked by angularities of Saturn, Neptune, and Pluto, and Moon aspects with Sun, Neptune, and Saturn. The most common foreground non-lunar aspects are Mars-Saturn and Saturn-Neptune, followed by a serious of obviously financial-themed aspects like Sun-Jupiter, Sun-Saturn, Mercury-Mars, and Mars-Uranus.
The Credit Crisis of 1772
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_of_1772
A partner in the Neal, James, Fordyce & Down banking house in London lost 300,000 pounds shorting East India Company stocks. On June 8, 1772 he fled to France and the firm collapsed, igniting panic in London. Confidence in the banking and credit systems crumbled. Twenty other banks fell like dominoes by late June. The crisis spread to other Scotland and (as a result of the East India Company being hit hard) the Netherlands. British colonies in America (especially in the South) were impacted because of the extensive credit debt they held on British banks. (Cascading consequences literally oled from this to the Boston Tea Party.)
The Panic of 1792
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1792
March 9, 1792, NYC
Another credit crisis occurring in March and April 1792. The Bank of the United States (formed about a year earlier, in February 1791) raised money by selling debt. Concurrently, several prominent bankers undertook "rampant speculation" in which they "attempted to drive up prices of US debt securities and bank stocks, but when they defaulted on loans, prices fell, causing a bank run" in March 1792. (March 9 is when the first key banker stopped making payments.) Alexander Hamilton as Secretary of the Treasury led political and financial maneuvers that stabilized the market. New York seems to be the center of all the activity, and the difference from there to nearby capital Philadelphia would have been small.
The Gold Con: Black Friday 1896
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Friday_(1869)
During the Grant administration, two speculators, Jay Gould and James Fisk tried to corner the gold market. President Grant was selling U.S. It was a straightforward maneuver: Treasury gold was sold weekly to pay down the huge national debt and generally fuel the economy in the wake of the Civil War. Gould and Fisk (fortified with insider connections to the White House) persuaded the Secretary of Treasury to suspend U.S. gold sales, then bought all the gold they could from the New York gold market, driving up prices. Grant discovered what they were doing and ordered $4 million in gold be released September 24, 1869, plunging gold prices downward, smashing Gould and Fisk's scheme, triggering a months-long Wall Street panic which (thanks to Grant's steady handling) did not turn into a depression.
The Panic of 1901
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1901
May 8, 1901, 1:00 PM, New York City
This first crash ever of the New York Stock Exchange began in a battle over control of the Northern Pacific Railway. There were no winners because, not long after the dust settled, the company was shut down under the trust-busting Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890. On May 8, 1901, the battle triggered a market crash with frantic panic to sell on the exchange floor. -- I probably need to research the fine point more before writing this up in detail, but this is enough to study it astrologically.
Florida's Real Estate Craze 1926
Florida's real estate bubble of the '20s, and part of its eventual collapse, is discussed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_l ... _the_1920s
This started weakening in 1925 and, according to the above article, the pivot was then the sinking of the Prinz Valdemar in Miami harbor (you can read about it at the link). the 1926 Miami Hurricane in September further gutted the boom (followed by the Okeechobee Hurricane in '28, all on a path toward the Great Depression in 1929).
This doesn't seem like an event to study as part of a financial collapse, though I have a new shipwreck and hurricane to look into
I'll skip this as a financial event. Here is the original newsfeed item that put me on its track: "A large migration to Florida in the 1920s increased the Sunshine State’s population; but the housing market couldn’t meet the demand, and property values swelled. The bubble burst and values shot down the same year as a massive hurricane, plummeting the stock market and establishing a precursor to the Great Depression."Recession of 1937-38
https://www.federalreservehistory.org/e ... of_1937_38
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1937–38
Described as May 1937 to June 1938. GDP dropped 10%, unemployment hit 20%. As recessions go, it was milder, but ill-placed as America thought it was coming out of the Great Depression. Probable causes were "a contraction in the money supply caused by Federal Reserve and Treasury Department policies and contractionary fiscal policies." The first article above goes into careful detail on how these conspired to create rapid deflation and general contraction.
There seems no exact timing to analyze in detail, but we can look at larger trends in, say, the solar ingresses in May 1937 and into the center of the next year.
The 1962 Kennedy Slide aka The Bear Market of 1962
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennedy_Slide_of_1962
This was a stock market decline from December 1961 to June 1962. Of six months, the S&P declined over 20%, the Dow 5.7% (which, at the time, was the second-largest point decline on record). Only after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 10/62 did the market fully recover.
Coming out of a period (post-depression and post-WW II) of rapid, vast economic expansion, the market suddenly reversed in December 1962, apparently as a natural correction to a decade of extreme growth. (This would seem to structurally resemble our current 2018 situation IMHO.)
The markers of this slide were a top in the S&P on December 12, 1961 that bottomed June 26, 1962 after a 28% drop. The market recovered and passed its prior peak a little about 14 month later on September 3, 1963.
1973-74 Oil Crisis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973–74_s ... rket_crash
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis
In 1973, President Nixon ended the Eisenhower era oil quota system that had favored purchasing cheap foreign oil. America was buying most of its oil overseas with significant reductions in American oil production. Organized Middle Eastern oil-producing companies (OPEC) then increased prices.
Parallel this, in 1971 Nixon pulled the U.S. out of the Bretton Woods Accord which had linked the dollar to gold prices. With a newly "floating" dollar (which other countries soon copied), the value of the dollar fell against foreign currency. This undercut OPEC nation income (they got less real value for the dollars they were charging), so they linked their oil prices to a fixed amount in gold rather than in dollars, causing the cost to increase.
Net effect: Oil prices shot up in 1973-74.
On October 6, 1973, Egypt and Syria attacked Israeli-held lands (the Yom Kippur War). Six days later, Nixon announced rapid delivery of weapons to Israel. Then, on October 17, 1973, OPEC raised prices, cut oil production, and declared an embargo against Israel's allies including the U.S. This embargo (and further oil production cuts) had worldwide economic impact, forcing a recession until the embargo was withdrawn in March 1974.
Consequent to this, the U.S. stock market experienced a bear market from the start of 1973 until the end of 1974. Bretton Woods withdrawal was certainly a main component. The oil wars either were an additional cause or at least made the market drops more economically painful.
I should study the Yom Kippur War separately. As an economic event, this may be difficult to study because it had such global impact, but I will attempt to frame it as a U.S. event. U.S. GDP growth dropped from +7.2% to -2.1%. Inflation rate increased from 3.4% to 12.3%. The 1973 Capsolar should be pivotal in this, in theory. I have to spend more time digging through this to figure out what date might concentrate the drop (I haven't yet found a target date.)
The Early '90s Recession
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_1990s_recession
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_199 ... ted_States
I don't see much that is concrete to dig into here. The date range for the U.S. is July 1990 through March 1991. The 1990 Cansolar had a Jupiter-Saturn opposition across the horizon tied into Sun, as almost its only feature. Not much to see here.
The 2000 Dot-com bubble
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble
At the peak of the Dot-com craze, several leading technology companies (including Dell and Cisco) began selling their holdings in their own stock on March 10, 2000. Beginning the next day (March 11, 2000) and lasting until October 9, 2002, the Dot-com crash hit, costing the stock market 10% of its value in the early weeks and a total of $5 trillion in value before it was over. Giant companies failed. Cisco and Qualcomm barely survived. Venture capital that had poured into startups with unprecedented ease for years now evaporated. By the end of the two and a half year bear market, NASDAQ has dropped to 22% of its previous value.
The 2010 One-Man Flash Crash
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Flash_Crash
This one is timed! On May 6, 2010, beginning at 2:32 PM EDT (lasting until 3:08), one man spoofed the stock market into dumping a trillion dollars. It was brief: Major marks crashed and sprang back almost at once. But, for a minute, the collective "everyone" was a trillion dollars poorer.
The Dow dropped nearly 1,000 points in minutes when Navinder Singh Sarao spoofed the market with fake sell orders that would manipulate stock outcomes to his advantage. After this happened, a lot of new rules were implemented to keep it from happening again.
2018 Inflation Scares
After a short drop beginning at the State of the Union address in late January, the period February 1-8 especially had sharp drops of about 2,700 points. The Dow dropped over 3,200 points (about 12%) before turning around and recovering three-fourths of the losses, then fell another 680 points in the last two days of February.
I think it too early to start examining the current market cycle. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that these drops marked some predictive successes. In particular, for the January 15 Capsolar we forecast a year of hardship, narrowing, and loss, and that recession was not unthinkable.
Jim, this is the best SMA (Capsolar-Master Chart of the Year) example of angular Jupiter-Neptune timing “rampant speculation” I have ever witness!!!
