Jupiter Sets at Dawn wrote: Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:29 am
In my experience, there aren't as many soft edges in astrology as people think.
This is a keen observation. I have a theory about it.
Generally, I agree with the point of view that such orbs are gradually, tapering matters, but I disagree with Bradley or others who say there is no absolute drop-off.
Decades ago, I started thinking of "relative strength of an aspect" as
percentage of its likelihood to manifest. At partile (I mean about a 1°, not 0°00' precision), odds are very close to 100% of manifestation, and it drops from there.
I don't know for sure that it is "odds of manifesting" in the
probabilistic sense that those words should mean, but, if not, then it is something very close to that. If you think of it in these terms, you get some very interesting results. As a setup: For the sextile, square, and trine, you can't have an orb larger than 15° because then you would have two different aspects at the same time (both sextile an square, both square and trine). Therefore, the maximum aspectivity for these (score 1.00, meaning 100%) is at 0°00' orb and the minimum aspectivity (score 0.00, meaning 0%) is at 15°. If you plot this as a sine curve, the drop-off isn't linear but the place where it crosses 0.5 (50%) happens to be right in the middle, at 7°30'. - This is just an example to set you up for what comes next.
In a since, that 7°30' orb isn't a hard edge because a little less than this orb is a 51% chance of manifestation, while a slightly larger orb is a 49% chance of manifestation. This 2% difference, in one sense (the sense Bradley, Duncan, and others mean) is not a big deal and shouldn't be treated any differently than the difference between an 89% and 87% difference - a difference you would never perceive in real life.
Yet, in another sense, this 51% to 49% gap is quite a different thing. At 51%, a manifestation is still
more likely to occur than not, while at 49% it is
a little less likely to manifest than not. Stripping away extra words, 51% is still
likely to manifest while 49% is
unlikely to manifest.
Forget the numbers and think of the concept: The gap between
likely to manifest and
unlikely to manifest is a quantum leap across an immeasurable gap. Therefore, I think there is a distinctive, precise line exactly there, a "fall off the cliff" point.
Now, in practice we don't encounter this much because we're usually no longer paying attention for quite a stretch of the slope down to that bottom (especially with the major aspects). With minor aspects (defined for convenience as those that have tighter orbs), the curve has a tinier base and is nearly acute, so the drop-off comes upon us much faster when we hit the edge.