New timing on Panic of 1893

[Jim Eshelman]

Because the fall of the U.S. economy into the Panic of 1893 was gradual, it was always challenging to pin down an exact point-event for it. The most pivotal event in the market collapse has always seemed to be the bankruptcy of the Philadelphia & Reading Railroad (from which the biggest dominoes fell). Last time I visited this question, all references I could find lifted the bankruptcy as February 23, 1893; however (even if that's when the paperwork was finalized), the public reaction - the real triggering PANIC - was three days earlier.

I just found an online archive of the Roanoke Times including its front page for February 21,1893. Here is the link: https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn ... d-1/seq-1/

Two separate timelines unfolded on February 20. (1) The court matters around the Philadelphia & Reading. (2) The market panic itself, which occurred earlier in the day. Here is a report with relevant quotes:

The Roanoke Times for February 21, 1893 reported that attorneys appeared in court “about 2:30 o’clock” and were “closeted a long time” with the judge. At “a few minutes past 4 o’clock” an announcement was made of the appointment of receivers. This was the third day of public battling over the fate of Philadelphia & Reading. The paper continued that, the stock exchange’s “slaughter of Friday and Saturday was continued… The moment the exchange was opened for business [February 20] huge blocks of Reading were thrown on the market and inside of twelve minutes the price was hammered down… The scenes at the exchange throughout the morning were exciting. The galleries were packed to suffocation by an immense crowd which was interested and amazed at what it saw. On the floor pandemonium reigned. Around the reading post there was a wild, struggling mass of panic-stricken humanity. Brokers jumped, roared, yelled and gesticulated… It was a panic. Brokers tumbled over each other in their wild eagerness to unload.”

It was panic! - So the critical event that might be called the formal start of the Panic of 1893, and its subsequent four-year depression, is at the minute the New York Stock Exchange opened Monday, February 20, 1893.

I don't know what time the market them opened. (Does anyone here know?) For the moment, I will use 9:00 AM.

[SteveS]

I don't know what time the market them opened. (Does anyone here know?) For the moment, I will use 9:00 AM.

I have no idea after some initial probing but will investigate further. But, if I had to guess when it opened I would go with 8:30 AM ET because of the following chart (link below) with a Venus-Mars-Jupiter rotational T- square and Moon cnj Saturn, exact and partile throughout the trading day. The market opens today at 9:30 AM EDT, so the 8:30 AM ET might be spot-on since there was no daylight time in 1893. A lot of $ disappeared at opening and throughout the day with that Mars-Jupiter rotational t-square at opening bell---if 8:30 AM ET FEB 20 1893.

https://imgur.com/qZjarag

[Jim Eshelman]

Thanks for the great observation.

However, one can't do credible astrological research by picking the chart that fits one's theories the best . I'll go with 9 AM (which I picked in advance) unless I can find some documentary / historical evidence to the contrary.

[SteveS]

9:00 AM it is.

[Jim Eshelman]

I think your intuition on 8:30 might be right (though I can't use it without confirmation). I do know that 14 years later, in 1907, the stock exchange closed at 3 PM instead of today's 4 PM. (This emerged from the story of JP Morgan's temporary last-minute save of the market in the 1907 panic.) If it closed an hour earlier it probably opened an hour earlier - reasonable guess, at least - and conditions were substantially the same in 1907 and 1893.

[SteveS]

Jim, probably the only place to find reliable historical data for opening/closing times would be the the historical records kept by the NYSE. And probably, members only would have access to the historical records for the NYSE.

[Jim Eshelman]

As I work on a rewrite of the financial panics chapter of SMA, I'm finding better times / dates for several events. Sometimes just tiny shifts, sometimes a little larger. It probably isn't making a significant difference in the final statistics, though I haven't quite gotten to the place where I can recompile bottom-line numbers.

The basics remain the same: Saturn and Neptune are most often angular and, with Sun, also have the most Moon aspects. Mars-Saturn and Saturn-Neptune aspects are the most common foreground non-lunar aspects (with Mars-Saturn frequency past 3,000-to-1, Saturn-Neptune more than 100-to-1).

Some updated dates/times:

Panic of 1873 (for USA). Previously I only had that it all crumbled in September. I now know the tipping point: The New York Stock Exchange closed for ten days, starting Saturday, September 20, 1873, following the collapse of the important bank, Jay Cooke & Co., on September 18. Jay Cooke’s bankruptcy started a cascade of other bank failures. I'm using the time the market would have opened on Saturday, September 20 (it was opened on Saturday in those days), estimated at 9:00 AM. (Do not miss the CapQ for this!)

Panic of 1893. As discussed above, this should be February 20, opening of market, at which point all hell broke loose. NOTE: This is the same calendar date (2/20) as the 2020 crash began.

Panic of 1907. Instead of focusing on the bold temporary save that J.P. Morgan and friends pulled off on October 24, the crash itself is best measured from October 22, 1907, about 12:10 PM: Bank runs already in process led to the insolvency of New York’s third largest trust, the Knickerbocker Trust, by “shortly after noon” October 22 (which I took as 12:10 on estimate). From there, the dominoes fell fast. (The day charts are a little compromised - abut as much Venus as Mars - but one can't miss transiting Mars exactly crossing the New York Capsolar MC AND CapQ MC crossing ingress Mars. (The latter was to the minute, 04' past ingress Mars, 04' before progressed Mars.) However, very strangely transiting Jupiter's opposition to CapQ Moon came exactly to angles that day.

Probably more to come.

[Jim Eshelman]

To add another note about 1907 that I think will intrigue you, Steve: The Libsolar October 17, 1907 gets a "0" (Neutral) score from me with respect to the October 22 crash. It's main feature is a Venus-Mars square - Venus 0°15' from square MC, Mars 2°42' from MC, and Venus square Mars 0°27'. My basic analysis (rating a 0 score) is that it shows passion and emotional volatility but nothing specifically addressing the crash.

However...

One possible way to read this chart: The crash followed on a stock manipulation scheme to corner the copper market (which gave serious wheels to this rolling crisis). This climaxed October 16, and on the 17th – the exact day of the Libsolar – the investors involved were kicked to the curb – literally, the curb outside the New York Stock Exchange where a secondary market existed (that later became the American Stock Exchange). Copper is traditionally associated with Venus: This Libsolar’s angular Venus-Mars square perhaps can be read as “copper crisis.” This, however, would require a study of Venus’ roll in copper shares on the commodities market. Something you might have the resources to investigate?

It's timely, since the Arisolar rolling in less than two weeks from now also has - as it's only important feature - a Venus-Mars aspect exactly on angles.

[SteveS]

Yes, very interesting, could very well be a key for the copper market. If only I had the resources to investigate the history of the copper market and then be set-up in the proper ways to view/listen to the going-ons from the trading pit of the copper market---but those days are long gone. Still, a good observation Jim.

[Veronica]

Cooper piping found in the infastucture of building is the first things robbers go for.