Solunars by Aldebaran Sidereal Academy

Here follows an examination of PSSI Capsolar Moon aspects to ingress and transiting planets for the current catalogue of 59 major fires. So save time, I won't list those where nothing occurs. The examples most distinguished from the CapQ (SQ rate) Moon will be those that occur no earlier than the start of May in each year.

I've using the SF estimating method, where PSSI Moon can be expected to be accurate within about 0°02'.

Ycua Bolanos Market Fire (Aug 1)
t Sun sq. p Moon 0°08'

UpStairs Lounge Fire (Jun 24)
t Neptune op. p Moon 0°41'

Tubbs Fire (Oct 8)
p Moon op. s Neptune 0°37'

Triangle Shirtwaist Fire (Mar 25)
p Moon op. s Uranus 0°25' (SQ Moon was not in orb)

Station Nightclub Fire (Feb 20)
t Pluto op. p Moon 0°20'
p Moon op. s Pluto 0°35' (midpoint 0°08')
(SQ Moon was closer to s Pluto (16') and farther from t Pluto (39').)

Ohio State Penitentiary Fire (Apr 21)
p Moon op. s Sun 0°59', p Sun 0°39'
(SQ Moon was closer: op. s Sun 0°03')

Luoyang Christmas Fire (Dec 25)
t Saturn conj. p Moon 0°10'

L'Innovation Department Store Fire (May 22)
p Moon op. s Pluto 0°56'
t Uranus op. p Moon 0°43'
(It was a terrorist attack)

Lame Horse Nightclub Fire (Dec 5)
p Moon sq. s Pluto 0°41'

Kiss Nightclub Fire (Jan 27)
p Moon sq. s Jupiter 0°31', t Jupiter 0°07'
Indistinguishable from SQ Moon. The Capsolar itself had a 0°05' Moon-Jupiter square. There was no separating this aspect from the fire.

Great Moscow Fire (Jun 24)
t Neptune conj. p Moon 0°03'

Great Fire of Valparaiso (Apr 12)
p Moon sq. s Mars 0°02'
t Mars sq. s Moon 0°03'
(This is a phenomenally exact example!)

Friendship Theater Fire (Dec 8)
t Sun sq. p Moon 0°28'

Conway Theater Fire (Dec 5)
t Jupiter sq. p Moon 0°02'

Collectiv Nightclub Fire (Oct 30)
p Moon conj. s Saturn 0°51', sq. s Mars 0°59'

Club Cinq-Sept (Nov 1)
t Mercury op. p Moon 0°15'

Baku Metro Fire (Oct 28)
t Mercury sq. p Moon 0°07'

Purely randomly, we expect PSSI Moon to make a partile conjunction, opposition, or square with an ingress or transiting planet about 22% of the time. In these 59 events, that means 13 contacts. In the summary above, there are 22 aspects which, just in terms of the number of contacts, is quite high (approaching double the expected number).

More importantly, the aspects that occur can all be deemed appropriate except for four (two that might be deemed inappropriate, two that might be too neutral). I actually think only two (not four) of these should weigh against it - which would be quite good! Let's break it down.

Moon contacts that seem appropriate to the fires are: Pluto 4, Neptune 3, Mars 3, Sun 3, Saturn 2, Uranus 2. Again, this is quite good! Pluto leading devastating fires is hardly bad. Mars and Neptune, the two key planets of fires, some next. Sun counts as much as the rest because Moon-Sun aspects are among the most common for fires. Etc. (Of these, SQ Moon was closer once so, perhaps, the PSSI shouldn't be counted; it, at least, is not distinctive.)

Two events seem to count against it. The Kiss Nightclub Fire and Conway Theater Fire both have Moon-Jupiter aspects. I don't take Kiss seriously in this test of the PSSI because that event was going to be Moon-Jupiter dominant regardless (a 0°05' aspect in the Capsolar and an indistinguishably close SQ aspect). In one sense, neither of these weighs heavily against it because both occurred in clubs, the one place where Jupiter has a strong presence in fires. But, without arguing it away, let's say these two line up against the technique.

Finally, two have Mercury aspects. One of these was the Baku Metro fire - a subway fire! - for which Mercury is appropriate. In the other (Club Cinq-Sept) it neither obviously contributes nor detracts.

On balance, this seems a very good showing.

I'm not understanding why we're discounting the PSSI just because another technique (the SQ) shows well also. It would make as much sense to me to discount the SQ because the PSSR also showed the incident well. If the incident showed well in the lunar, would we discount the Solar?

Jupiter Sets at Dawn wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:36 am I'm not understanding why we're discounting the PSSI just because another technique (the SQ) shows well also.

I'm saying that, given that we know the SQ (CapQ) is a solid technique, there is nothing in that example to distinctly show that the PSSI itself is contributing to the description.

It would make as much sense to me to discount the SQ because the PSSR also showed the incident well. If the incident showed well in the lunar, would we discount the Solar?

I would if we'd proven the lunars already but were just starting to gather evidence on whether the solars were of any value. But the progressed Moon is even a tighter matter since, until the faster Moon gets a bit ahead of the slower one, there's no way to tell them apart.

Generally, one wants to isolate the thing tested from every possible other contributing factor so that it can be seen in itself. "Every possible" isn't always a standard easily (or even practicably) attainable, but we need to try.

If you say so... you're doing the math.