1556 Shaanxi earthquake

[Jim Eshelman]

Jan 23, 1556 (OS), morning, Shaanxi Province, China
NOTE: Wikipedia gives coordinates for the quake itself, 34N30'01", 109E18'00". I'm not sure how they would identify so precisely at this great distance in time, but these are not just Wikipedia's standard coordinates for the center of the province itself. It's not far from the capital, Xi'an.

NOTE: I've found another author who retranslated the historic records with more attention to Chinese time-keeping and says January 11, 11:00 PM is correct. There seems too much uncertainty around date and place to publish this at the moment.

The deadliest earthquake recorded in history (magnitude 8.0): approximately 830,000 people died and an area approximately 520 miles wide was destroyed. "in some counties as much as 60% of the population was killed." Most people in the area lived in artificial caves cut into silty sediment (loess); these collapsed.

I will use 9 AM as a working time. The charts (other than the Week chart & the CapQ) are quite bad. Even the new Capsolar fails badly. (The Week chart and CapQ are what we rely on most.)

Year/Quarter: Capsolar {-2}
Venus sq. Asc 0°03'
Sun, Uranus more widely angular
-- Sun-Venus conj. 2°38'
Jupiter-Neptune op. 2°28' PVP

Bridge (None.)
Month: Caplunar (Dormant.)

Week: Arilunar {+1}
Sun on Asc 2°02'
Mars sq. MC 1°33'
Venus & Jupiter more widely foreground)
-- Venus sq. by NA Neptune 2°57'
-- Jupiter sq. by NA Pluto 2°04'
-- Su/Ve on Asc 0°51'
-- Mars-Jupiter sq. 2°11'
-- Venus-Jupiter sq. 2°49' in mundo

Day: Capsolar Quotidian & Transits {+2|-1 = +2}
p MC op. s Mars 1°06', sq. s Neptune 1°20', t Neptune 1°15'
-------------------------------
t Venus op. s Moon 0°50'

Day: Cansolar Quotidian & Transits {0}
p Asc conj. t Sun 0°39'
-------------------------------
t Sun conj. s Dsc 1°54'


SUMMARY
Year: Venus (Sun Uranus). Sun-Venus Jupiter-Neptune.
Bridge: (None).
Month: (Dormant.)
Week: Sun Mars (Venus Jupiter). Su/Ve Venus-Jupiter Mars-Jupiter (Venus-Neptune Jupiter-Pluto).
Day (Capsolar): Mars Neptune (CapQ). Moon-Venus (transits).
Day (Cansolar): Sun (CanQ). Sun (transits).

[Jim Eshelman]

I think we need to keep this one around as an event from which we can learn something. I've nearly run out of major events that misbehave without apparent reason - we've cracked the code of nearly all of them - and this one is pretty bad.

Except... it shows well in the Week chart and really well in the CapQ. For most events, these are the exact charts that show best. It's just puzzling that the rest is so poor, especially the new Capsolar.

[Jim Eshelman]

First impressions... the easy stuff...

None of the ingresses have mundane aspects that don't exist ecliptically. (That's a factor that has been found moderately valid, as it is locale-distinctive.)

No non-primary aspects hit angular planets in the charts to alter their typical working.

Adding extra planets, I notice that Chiron is exactly rising (0°42') in the Caplunar (which may or may not mean anything). The asteroid Vesta is not far from MC (not quite 4° off, in T-square to Mercury and Saturn). The basic point is that Chiron, if taken as a valid factor, would break dormancy and let the wider angular factors, such as Saturn 5° off the angle.

Of some interest to me is that I've added seven other astronomical bodies to the mix, and (with the exception of the Caplunar) not one of them is of any note or importance in any chart of this stack.

The CapQ, which is already good and needs no pumping up, has Asc opposite the planet Eris.

But these are isolated matters. No recurring pattern to make it look like anything more than a roulette wheel.

[Jim Eshelman]

All four lunar and all four solar ingresses are valid at any given time. Its just that several of them can be expected to have such "quiet voices" that they aren't relevant in practice. Nonetheless, we can go back to the primitive days when Bradley was first discovering these methods, and look at all 4 solars and all 4 lunars.

We've seen the Capsolar. The Cansolar is dormant. The recently expired Libsolar is of some interest, with a partile Moon-Neptune conjunction partile square Ascendant (though it also has Jupiter on IC).

The best of the set is the Arisolar from 10 months earlier. In addition to Moon square Uranus, it has Pluto 0°22' from Descendant and a rising Mars. This is an appropriately annihilating chart (and, as mentioned, it had just expired).

We've seen the dormant Capsolar and the not-too-bad Arilunar. How about the others?

The Canlunar three weeks later is not helpful. We have another Sun-Venus conjunction on MC, though Uranus is setting in mundane square to Moon. It's OK but not decisively accurate. The Liblunar has still another Sun-Venus angular!

Sun-Venus seems to be the defining aspect of many of these charts.

[Jim Eshelman]

I'm actually wondering how sure they are of the date of this event.

[Jim Eshelman]

Jan 23, 1556 (OS), morning [use 9 AM], Shaanxi Province, China

It just occurred to me that part (all?) of the problem is that Solar Fire doesn't calculate older ingresses as accurately as we'd like. I'll recalculate: Everything above is a little bit wrong.

This is a lot better! The Capsolar is still not great: Though Venus is no longer shown 0°03' from an angle, it remains partile. The Arilunar was OK and is now better with Mars as its most angular planet: it might deserve a +2. Remarkably, the excellent CapQ retains its contacts! - Eris is a well-timed factor in two of these charts and might be worth considering in the future.

Year/Quarter: Capsolar {-2}
Venus sq. Asc 0°25'
Sun more widely angular
-- Sun-Venus conj. 2°38'
Jupiter-Neptune op. 2°30' PVP

Bridge (None.)
Month: Caplunar (Dormant.)

Week: Arilunar {+1 or +2}
Mars sq. MC 1°39'
Sun on Asc 1°57'
Venus & Jupiter more widely foreground)
-- Su/Ve on Asc 0°56'
-- Mars-Jupiter sq. 2°11'
-- Venus-Jupiter sq. 2°54' M
-- Jupiter sq non-fore Pluto 2°04'
-- Venus sq non-fore Neptune 2°57'

NOTE: Eris on Nadir 0°22'.

Day: Capsolar Quotidian & Transits {+2|-1 = +2}
p MC op. s Mars 0°41', sq. s Neptune 1°45', t Neptune 1°40'
-------------------------------
t Venus op. s Moon 0°49'

Day: Cansolar Quotidian & Transits {0}
p Asc conj. t Sun 0°01'
p Asc sq s Eris 1°25'
-------------------------------
t Sun conj. s Dsc 1°30'

This is now a tolerable, though by no means spectacular, stream of charts.

[SteveS]

Jim wrote:

It's just puzzling that the rest is so poor, especially the new Capsolar.

Exactly Jim! I looked at this event with SMA a few days ago, and had the same suspicion you had about Wikipedia’s timing info and possible SMA calculation errors with SF with this distant date. However, I did note a par-excellent aspect very close to the date of this terrible quake which made good common sense to me for the timing of this quake, Mars partile conjunct Pluto (Approaching Precise Vargottama). If there are timing errors/calculation errors, and if the partile conjunction of Mars-Pluto fell at least on an angle of the Canlunar we would have a good confirming SMA hit. Also, the location of the epicenter could be wrong. In my work, I look upon partile conjunctions of Mars with malefics vargottama kinda like I would with partile aspects with the Moon----it don’t matter where they fall on the mundane wheel—they have potential for "outstanding" Worldwide effects.

[Jim Eshelman]

I now think the date most historians give (and Wikipedia gives) is correct. With better calculation, we do get the lunar ingress of the Week having Mars closest (and partile) to an angle (the SF Arilunar had the proportions different), and the final day has the exact Mars and Neptune hits. I'd like more but at least the last lunar ingress and the CapQ nailing it. If there is any error in time, we lose the only part of this that makes any sense.

Agreed, the partile Mars-Pluto conjunction on the day of the quake is eye-catching. If the quake was between 8 and 9 AM (since "early morning" is all we have), it would have been rising (but we can't know that). Of course, this conjunction would have nothing specific to anchor it to this location - it would have been a worldwide effect not particularized anywhere in particular. Today, that wouldn't have mattered as much with instant world news, since it would have psychologically been a world event, but not in the 16th century.

I don't know if you remember, but since I was so unimpressed with most event charts (the chart for the actual time of an event), I did a study a few years ago collating all the aspects at the time of the event. I was shocked how little those aspects matched the events compared to the list of aspects that were foreground in the ingresses. Simply having an aspect at the time had about a 50-50 chance of that event and aspect matching.

I also wondered about the location. Or, more broadly, the fact that a spread-out area was affected. The epicenter or the largest population density affected would generally be the best place, but the effect IS spread out. I'm pretty sure that's why floods (which cover very wide areas) have fewer partile angularities compared to fires or mass shootings: The exact spot is spread out.

I think we probably have the right date and either the correct or nearly correct place, given the Arilunar and CapQ.

[SteveS]

I understand exactly where you are coming from Jim, thanks.