Tidal Components in Hurricane Development

[Jim Eshelman]

I've looked for this (on and off) for years and finally was able to get a copy: It is the article "Tidal Components in Hurricane Development" by Donald A. Bradley (of the Research Division, College of Engineering, New York University) published in Nature on October 10, 1964 (coincidentally on my tenth birthday, but that has nothing to do with the quality of the article ).

The article is valuable for a couple of reasons. First, of course, is its contribution to meteorology's theories of the impact of tides on hurricane formation. From this we learn some practical points about lunar phase (a strikingly strong and precise correlation) and Moon's relationship to her apogee and perigee: the key is that the effect is distributed according to change in rate of Moon's distance, more than the distance itself).

Secondly, this article shows Bradley's mind when he wasn't having to write for a newsstand astrology magazine targeted at a popular audience. He knew his stuff - and this article shows him as the serious, respected scientist he was.

Feel free to grab a copy for yourself.

https://1drv.ms/b/s!Ansnmu2xbktanNM6Weu ... w?e=Jd02Mk

[Jim Eshelman]

Here is another article - “The Lunar Synodical Period & Precipitation in the United States” by Glenn W. Brier (U.S. Weather Bureau) & Donald A. Bradley (New York University), 1964, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. It's different (in several respects expanded) from the better known Bradley, Woodbury, and Briar article in Science two years earlier.

Dr. Brier, of course - then with the U.S. Weather Bureau - was one of the most respected statisticians and researchers of his era. He and Max Woodbury were Bradley's primary collaborators in the weather research projects. Though Wikipedia doesn't have a page on Brier himself, this article on one of his contributions to statistical analysis gives an idea of who he was: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score

Similarly, here is an article describing one of Woodbury's contributions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodbury_matrix_identity

Please help your self to a copy of the article so that we have many copies available to us. You can get it here: https://1drv.ms/b/s!Ansnmu2xbktanNM8B3_ ... Q?e=hrhZu5

[SteveS]

Very interesting Jim, thanks for this article by Bradley, without a doubt one of the most brilliant research astrologers of our time. This article reminds me of the freak Winter Storm of 1993 spawned in the Gulf with a March 8th Super Full Moon. If I understand Bradley’s article for my own mental notes, more probability of hurricanes or any coastal storms developing during a Super Moon which could potentially be a more dangerous situation.

Broad Definition: A supermoon is a new or full moon that occurs when the Moon is near perigee (the point in the Moon’s orbit where it is closest to Earth). By this definition, there can be several supermoons in a year. This term “supermoon” was coined by astrologer Richard Nolle in 1979 and specifies that the Moon must be within 90% of perigee.

What I would want to do is look at charts for DC with any Supermoons associated with weather predictions of coastal storms continuing through any parts of USA. If memory is serving me the DC chart for the Supermoon of March 8th 1993 was afflicted with angular Saturn-Pluto which timed the worst winter storm in the South & East for US in its history, after the predicted Gulf Coastal storms with the Supermoon of Mar 8th 1993.

[Jim Eshelman]

Actually, if you look at the graph in the article it shows that perigee is one of the two lowest times of the month. The highest frequency points are those two times a month that Moon is halfway between apogee and perigee. (The text is confusing but the graph is close enough to maybe get it visually.)

Why halfway? These are the periods when Moon's rate of change (on distance) is the greatest.

[SteveS]

Jim wrote:

The highest frequency points are those two times a month that Moon is halfway between apogee and perigee.

Then I did not understand Bradley's article, thanks for clarifying.

[Jim Eshelman]

It's complicated, but hopefully this will make it clearer:

The graph has two peaks. One is halfway from apogee to perigee. The other is earlier than apogee but doesn't look to be halfway between. The deepest trough is about 2 days after apogee, with another trough in the opposite side of the month.

The graph looks asymmetrical. It is clear that the peaks are somewhere between apogee and perigee, but not equal distances. Here's the complicated art: Bradley then made an adjustment for the elliptical shape of the orbit and found (I simplify) that the peaks and troughs are symmetrical on either side of a point about 2 days after apogee.

These are the points approximately halfway from apogee to perigee, and then halfway from perigee to apogee measured in terms of how much of the orbit is passed. These are the points where the Moon's speed in her orbit is changing fastest. (It doesn't matter if it's slowing down or speeding up - it's changing fastest). Think of it as approximately the points halfway from apo to peri, and again halfway between peri and apo.