2024 Presidential Election Forecast - Hindsight Analysis

[Jim Eshelman]

Written March 8, 2025. The earlier dates on the posts are because I copied another thread from back in August (and inherited the date stamps).

I promised I would come back here after Inauguration Day and fully analyze this forecast in hindsight. Since my flat-out final word before the election was, "I predict Kamala Harris will be inaugurated president because Donald Trump is shown to be a loser," I was wrong. (I was also wrong that, "This Super Bowl (so to speak) will go into double overtime." The outcome was resolved quickly with little looking back.)

I wasn't entirely wrong, though, since I really didn't want to call this election. My actual final word in the companion thread was, "If this were a sports match, I wouldn't advise betting on it either way. All indications EXCEPT the single most powerful individual; chart suggest Trump will lose. The strongest technique in the bunch then says otherwise. The same technique then contradicts itself later." (Thus, the big winner of this election was the Sidereal Lunar Return!)

I didn't want to call the election because the indications were too close. It was, in fact, the single closest election (in terms of popular votes, which is what such statements should be based on) since IIRC Nixon vs. Humphrey. But, as a predicting mundane astrologer, I felt it my duty to make a prediction and decided to show my work meticulously so that we could critique it later. I based the forecast only on primary techniques that we usually say we can count on for routine predictive work, so I'm not going to waste energy on looking at lesser (especially experimental) methods: Either the tools we say we can rely on routinely work, or we need to change what we rely on routinely!

As I start this backwards look, I suspect I will find that the flat-out "She wins!" prediction was wrong, the body of what I said was right, and the main weaknesses were in the astrologer, not in the astrology.

What was correct before this forecast
The forecast in question is here: viewtopic.php?t=8881

I held off my prediction until after the conventions. I don't like to predict the outcome of a competition until I know who is playing. Last year began with the assumption that its presidential contest would be between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. It was absolutely clear to me (and stated here repeatedly) that President Biden would not (could not!) win: His Sidereal Solar Return for the current year is devastating (summarized as Saturn and two Neptunes) and his post-election 2024 SSR would be even worse. -- As everyone knows, this is correct: Biden was forced out of the race before the conventions. The Saturn and two Neptunes were exactly right.

I had thought (and written here) that something critical would happen in the spring - that surely we'd see new circumstances by May. Instead, it took one month more - June - before pivotal events changed the players. I think specific developments in Pres. Biden's health occurred throughout the spring - my forecasts for him during that time hinted or outright said this - that his failing condition accelerated sometime after the State of the Union and the late June debate. Of course, without more information from inside the White House, I can't say that this timetable is correct.

Once we had two candidates confirmed - Kamala Harris and Donald Trump - I wrote the forecast linked above. I haven't reread it in full since I wrote it in August 2024. I'll now inch my way through it and see what insight hindsight gives me. I'm particularly looking for techniques that succeeded or failed, techniques that I should have read differently, and specific errors I made.

Here we go...

[Jim Eshelman]

Donald Trump's solar arc directions were devastating. Because nothing flatly contradicted them but the final SLR, and because these have proven so powerful in the past important life developments, I gave them great weight. (I'm curious, going through this forecast, to see if I would have made the same forecast without the Solar Arcs. They looked unrecoverably terrible to me.

For Election Day, he [Trump] has the following solar arc directions in partile orb (sorted by orb):

d Sun oc r Saturn -51'
d Pluto sq r Venus -39'
d MC co r Pluto -38'
d Neptune sq r Moon -19'
d Saturn sq r Mercury 0°00'
t Uranus oc r Jupiter +29'
d Venus sq r Mercury +55'
d Mercury sq r Sun +59'

The tactic is to first focus on contacts (especially by major hard aspect: 0, 90, 180) that involve luminaries or angles. These often identify significant turning-point stages in life. Other partile hard aspects supplement these. In the present case, aside from a minor Sun-Saturn aspect, this leaves the gigantically important directed MC conjunct natal Pluto and Neptune square natal Moon.

On a win-lose question, I tried not to tip technically neutral factors one way or the other. For example, on directed MC to natal Pluto, I said it "can go either way: It means something epic, stunning, and decisive, a life-altering two-year period that is well underway and still building. This could be either a miraculous uplifting or a devastating dethroning. (It could, of course, mean death: anything terminal, the complete end of one road or phase and commencement of another.)"

I also cited that "Neptune to Moon is primarily negative." That direction is still building (as is MC to Pluto), so it was definitely a technical error to look at these luminary and angle aspects as if they swarmed around the Saturn-Mercury direction. Instead, Saturn-Mercury should have been used to supplement things happening centered more closely on the luminary and angle aspects. (But it was so damned tempting with that 0' orb exactly at the election!)

We still may see the Neptune-Moon working this month or next (it's exact now). I wrote, "It shows him more deceived than deceiving. It suggests increasing frailty, emotional lability, and mental confusion, responding more powerfully to every psychological impact as if everything that happens to him finds his most vulnerable place." I shouldn't have related this to the election time period. I saw all the directions near the election being "demoralizing and hurtful," with Saturn-Mercury being "about as bad an aspect for an election - for counting votes - as can be, etc." I concluded, "If we were to go ONLY on the testimony of solar arc directions, Donald Trump is an unequivocal loser in early November 2024." It's clear that relying on this aspect was a mistake.

Secondary progressions were also bad, but so were Harris' progressions, so this was a wash. The exception to this were the two Moon-Pluto progressions, one near the election and the other near inauguration. I read the aspects correctly and then drew the wrong conclusion from that. The interpretation was, "Something of great drama for him (with heavy psychological impact)..." This could have gone either way, either a profound life-altering removal from the political landscape or a profound life-altering win with the many consequences that would unfold from that. Because of other chart factors (including the solar arcs which already had me thinking he would lose bad), I made a wrong judgement about Moon-Pluto and wrote that it would be "something terminal, final, ending, downfall. It does not look good for him." I then brought it back to neutralizing advice I should have followed myself:

The two Moon-Pluto aspects climaxing around Election Day and Inauguration Day could be a sharp one-two punch terminating his career. However, it could be other high-impact events. In any case, we can't use the Moon-Pluto aspects to make a win-lose binary decision on the election's outcome.

Then came transits. I have high confidence in transits, though they tend to operate within the context of longer-term progressions and directions and to be focused through the angularities of solar and lunar returns. With Trump's transits, I had a problem: Directions and progressions showed losing. Transits, I judged, showed him winning. In the end, I decided that if every other technique but one showed a certain outcome, then that one outlier had to be disregarded (perhaps referring to something else in his life). This was a wrong judgement.

I said (I think correctly) that Uranus' transit over his MC showed a big deal result, "a once-in-a-lifetime event that triggers events connected to his personal elevation and stature (among other things). Uranus transits to angles show times of substantial change, liberation, and renewal. Though often destabilizing existing conditions, it usually leans toward the positive. Nonetheless, for the current question it can go either way: In predicting a sports contest between approximately equal teams, Uranus' prominence signifies surprise turnovers: Outcomes often depend on expectations because expectations get flipped on their head at the final horn. This transit can be either an enormous win granting him freedom, renewal, and attainment or a toppling from his high pedestal." I still think it correct that this transit by itself could have gone either way: It would have been life-altering in gigantic ways regardless of the outcome. I set it aside as an ultimately neutral factor that couldn't be relied on to predict the election outcome.

I noted difficult Saturn transits and auspicious Jupiter transits. I even wrote that Jupiter's transit to his Uranus "may be a positive aspect for a surprise win." I also noted to his advantage:

For the very short run, transiting Venus crosses his luminaries on three days centered on Election Day. This will definitely give him a boost in popularity and have him feeling good on those days. While this brief aspect may not decide the election, it definitely is helpful to him exactly on that day and suggests he goes to bed optimistic that night.

From the beginning, I knew Trump would be certain he had won when he went to bed on election night. Perhaps that should have been enough for me. (In hindsight: Yes, it should have.) Other factors later (plus the negatives mentioned above) had me undervalue that conclusion.

One thing that that made it seem Election Day transits could be trusted were transits for Inauguration Day. In hindsight, I still don't know exactly what it means that transiting Mars exactly conjoined his Saturn for his inauguration. I caught that Moon-Mercury exactly touched his Jupiter at the time the new president would take the oath of office, and this was positive for him, but the rest - especially Mars on his Saturn - looked too malicious (especially in the context of his return charts, as detailed below).

WHAT WAS LEARNED
Either Solar Arc directions need to be given far less importance than I gave them, or I read them wrong. Given our historic emphasis on directions that involve luminaries or angles, I may have erred in giving so much emphasis on directed Saturn square natal Mercury 0°00' exactly on Election Day.

I should have counted on transits more than I did. (I excluded them because so much else seemed to contradict them; but the transits nearly told the story by themselves.)

Many indications in these charts speak of outcomes contrary to all expectations, reversals, unprecedented outcomes, and precedent-setting events. I see that I couldn't navigate these conditions. I didn't know whose expectations were going to be reversed (I could argue it for either side) or what would constitute the most surprising and precedent-setting outcome (I could argue that either side). In hindsight, I don't know how I could have navigated that detail differently. One couldn't even say the outcome reversed the professional odds-makers' expectations, since Vegas odds turned Trump's way in the last weeks.

[Jim Eshelman]

Harris' Solar Arc directions had little to say looking forward (though they clearly showed what was right behind her). There was a hint of the positive with directed Ascendant to natal Jupiter, though how precise this aspect would be for the election depends on her precise birth time: Even a minute or two difference would have upset the whole thing. In hindsight, the Ascendant-Jupiter direction (for whatever exact period it was present) showed her rapid rise and popularity over the summer, much as John McCain's Jupiter directions in 2008 showed what became the political apex of his career - simply by being inaugurated.

I correctly concluded we couldn't rely on that time-sensitive Solar Arc.

What I saw repeatedly in Harris' chart were Saturn-Venus combinations (many kinds). I judged them unrelated to the campaign. With other positive indicators, I thought they might indicate something in her personal life - for example, significant sad feelings about seeing her friend and mentor, Joe Biden, fading. I was particularly thrown because a Venus-Saturn progression already existed during the period before she entered the contest - it had not slowed her politically at all - so not likely related to the outcome unless e.g., it meant willingness for sacrifice.

She and Trump both had negative secondary progressions. His were even slightly worse (including a Sun-Saturn). I considered them (I think rightly) a "wash," not giving either of them advantage or disadvantage.

Transits for Election Day included Pluto indicators of change: "Pluto does octile her Uranus, though this only tells us that her life is significantly changing: Is it because she wins or because she has to find a new job?" We now know it was the latter. I didn't use these technically neutral transits to judge the outcome.

I noted that transiting Uranus conjoins her Jupiter (50' on Election Day), that, "This is a solid WIN aspect." We'll come back to that aspect later. Just as I should have relied on transits for Trump, I may have made a different call on the election if I'd relied on them more for both candidates (I'm not sure, since the Uranus to Jupiter was the loudest). I noted, "Transiting Saturn will have been in orb of octile her luminaries. By Election Day it's 53' away from Sun and 43' away from Moon: Weakening but still in force. This weighs against her."

Her transits for Inauguration Day looked difficult. However, everybody involved had rough transits for Inauguration Day: It was clear that things would get very difficult beginning exactly then. I didn't see a clear, single conclusion to draw from that (so many were possible).

WHAT WAS LEARNED
I shouldn't have separated the Saturn-Venus indications from the campaign (thinking them more personal). In hindsight, they were the deep disappointment of losing.

As noted previously, I should have given more weight to transits even though they disagreed with almost everything else.

My this point, I was gearing up to predict the outcome based on how terrible Trump's chart looked so far, thinking it was Harris' to win or lose. Barring anything clearly showing she would lose, I was likely to predict she would win.

[Jim Eshelman]

Trumps Sidereal Solar Return showed a harsh year. He had already experienced indictments and both civil losses and criminal convictions. There was no a priori reason to think this would change. - The solar return correctly showed a brutal year for him, though (in hindsight) we know this did not also signal his electoral defeat.

Then came my biggest challenge: Other charts were tipping against him. However, the technique I consider the single most important and reliable predictive tool in all astrology showed an outrageously happy, successful Election Day AND that Inauguration Day would fall in the middle of one of the worst two-week periods of his life.

I split the baby. I said he'd be enormously happy for Election Day and horribly miserable for Inauguration Day. Both were right; however, I just didn't weight these the right way.

Rereading the forecast, I can see myself wrestling with myself. I knew, with no doubt, that he would be happier than any other time of his life if he was in Florida on Election Day. Writing of his Sidereal Lunar Return for Election Eve:

...Presuming he is at Mar-a-Lago, it is a spectacularly positive chart: Transiting Moon, Venus, and Jupiter and natal Uranus are all mutually configured close to the horizon... He's happy as can be! ...this is a spectacularly positive chart.

Then:

FOR THE INAUGURATION, he will be in Washington, DC if he's won. Even if his lunar returns occurred elsewhere, lunar returns adapt quickly to new locations so that the Washington version of the chart is what matters most. His most recent (and probably most important) lunar will have been the January 11 Demi-SLR, but we should look at the full lunar also... At Mar-a-Lago it's a difficult chart, but in Washington it's worse: downright emotionally devastating. If he's in Washington in the two weeks following January 11, transiting Moon, Venus, Saturn, and Neptune will be foreground (Saturn 1°23', Moon 0°53', the others wider) plus natal Sun. The architecture is a Moon-Venus-Saturn configuration while transiting Neptune squares natal Sun.

We now know that he did indeed have a terrible two weeks but unrelated to the issue of his election. This demi-lunar brought his final sentencing on 34 criminal fraud guilty verdicts. Though he had no additional sentence, he was permanently marked as a felon. Reports are that he was, indeed, extremely miserable.

But, alas... This didn't keep him from being inaugurated. I summarized:

We are left with very confusing indications. Under an overall harsh year, Election Day nonetheless looks spectacularly happy for him - celebratory, and certainly winning (or at least feeling certain he won) - at least, if he spends Election Day in Florida as it seems certain he will. Yet by Inauguration Day, he has emotionally devastating indications and perhaps is involved in (enacting or being the victim of) explosive conflict (possibly violent)... It would seem to suggest what looks like a certain win for him election night that becomes completely reversed before Inauguration Day. That, however, seems one of the least likely scenarios.

WHAT WAS LEARNED
I simply should never have ignored the obvious indications of the Election Eve lunar return. This was almost the ONLY positive indicator in his entire set of period analysis charts and it was exactly on target.

[Jim Eshelman]

I think I was right about every detail of Harris return charts.

The most important factor is where she will be the morning after her birthday. ...If she is in Washington for her birthday and doesn't leave (to return to the campaign trail) until after 9:41 AM, she has an extremely winning SSR. If she spends it elsewhere or leaves before 9:41 the next morning, the chart may look quite different. Unfortunately, we won't know her location until late October.

She wasn't in Washington. She was in (or very near) Philadelphia when this set up. The key aspect of Uranus transiting her Jupiter was still foreground but, instead of Jupiter being exactly angular as in Washington, Uranus was most angular. This made it a different chart.

I also may have made an outright interpretive misjudgment. Foreground aspects of transiting Saturn and Neptune are known for loss of office and stature - getting fired. Harris did not have this. However, even for Washington (and also for Philly), her SSR rotated her natal planets to form a mundane square between natal Saturn-Neptune. If this had been transiting Saturn and Neptune, I'd have seriously questioned her ability to win the election. Natal Saturn-Neptune can indicate dark emotional states and perhaps even voluntary abdication, but I have no experience of it indicating one got fired! Especially (in Washington) with Jupiter precisely angular, this psychological state would have been overwhelmed by the enormous auspicious indicators. - Perhaps I shouldn't have overlooked that "discovered" natal Saturn-Neptune aspect, though I still think that having it in Jupiter-dominated Washington would have had a different outcome than having it in Uranus-dominated Philadelphia.

I then cited that her final demi-lunar on Halloween morning depended on where she was on the road but, in any case, turned "heavily to the negative" on her return to DC. This time she got transiting Saturn and Neptune closely angular, which I called 's as losing, unhappy a combination as Trump's corresponding lunar is winning." (Didn't I listen to myself?) It would have required a super-positive return chart at its original location to overcome this (or that Jupiter-exact new solar return she'd have had if she'd stayed in Washington). I suggested she go to Milwaukee for this demi-lunar and she almost did - She stayed in Madison instead. That amount of distance made a difference: It had Saturn slightly more angular than the transiting Venus I was shooting for.

So, when she didn't get the solar return that I thought would have decisively shown winning, and retained the difficult demi-lunar made slightly worse by where she was the night it set up... that changed a lot!

I summarized:

If she is in Washington the morning after her birthday, her solar return is a winner! However, her Demi-SLR for Election Day looks like a loser, the January charts look mixed, she has a politically solid and somewhat positive lunar return January 7 and a seemingly dire demi the day after the inauguration. Her advantage is that Trump's chart for Inauguration Day is miserable and, in that sense, hers is better.

She wasn't in Washington the morning after her birthday.

WHAT WAS LEARNED
Again, the importance of the sidereal lunar and demi-lunar returns is emphasized. We MUST rely on these heavily. This is always difficult, because we don't know where the candidates will be in advance (and sometimes don't know where they will be on Election Day). This is our biggest challenge: The most accurate, powerful tools depend on knowing in advance where they will be.

[Jim Eshelman]

Sigh... under the heading of "I was right before I was wrong," here were my preliminary conclusions:

It's not overwhelmingly clear that ANYBODY wins, but the most consistent narrative is that it looks to everyone like Trump has won on Election Night, that outcome changes later in November, Harris is inaugurated under reasonably positive astrological conditions in January, and there is a lot of conflict and danger in January.

Trump's directions and progressions are solidly loss-directed though with much drama and turmoil. Harris' progressions are bad around the election and that clears before inauguration. Transits are volatile and not a good gauge for distinguishing these two. Return charts hinge greatly on where Harris spends her birthday and have the seemingly absurd outcome that Trump is joyous on Election Night and miserable in January.

[Jim Eshelman]

The one thing that matters under this heading (nothing else decisive was said) was this regarding J.D. Vance:

His new SLR occurs January 20 at 2:59 PM EST, soon after the inauguration itself. This is a winning chart! Transiting Jupiter 0°07' from EP and natal Jupiter 1°21' from Descendant. Natal Neptune is similarly strong. He has the pro-winning Jupiter opposite his Uranus... From this, I'd say he will be inaugurated as SOMETHING that day - and with the amount of violence shown and the amount of mournful loss, it may just be that he's inaugurated as President. (Joking but not entirely: Or elected president of the new Confederacy!)

Sidereal lunar and demi-lunar returns did much better than the astrologer who was reading them.

[Jim Eshelman]

Repeating, in summation, a lot of what was said earlier (which perhaps may allow summarizing where I went wrong):

This is difficult. The charts are confounding and all over the place.

In sports astrology, this is the signal not to predict the outcome!

Trump's directions and progressions are strongly loss-leaning. It is difficult to see how he could flourish in any way under some of these.

I seem to have read these wrong. i was too attracted (I think understandably so) by one direction at 0°00' orb exactly at the election and made this the centerpiece of my thinking. I did this despite the fact that we've tended to conclude that solar arcs involving luminaries or angles are the event-centers in life and other (non-luminary, non-angle) directions collate around them.

Trump's directions, progressions, and transits all point to major Pluto or Uranus conditions. For the election outcome, these are neutral or indecisive, though they show major dramatic events with extreme disruption, overthrowing circumstances, and redirection.

All true. (It was obvious to everyone this would be the case. Nonetheless, it's a correct reading of explicit astrological details.)

Both candidates' charts (plus the post-election Caplunar) suggest we won't know the outcome right away. In the ballot counting, November 16-17 keeps coming up as a pivotal date for both candidates.

Wrong. We knew it almost immediately. This statement was heavily influenced by the conclusion (analyzed above) that the outcome would look one way around Election Day itself and loo a different way by Inauguration Day.

Both candidates' charts suggest conflict and severe conditions right around the inauguration. Trump especially has indications either of personal harm or inciting violence. Harris shows burdens and struggles.

All true in principle - everybody's life became rapidly worse on January 20. This may also have been correct in its fine points (but I don't have enough information to say that objectively).

Harris' difficult progressions enduring through Election Day are resolved before Inauguration Day.

Well, good for her. Maybe her life got better. Whatever.

Trump's SSR is hurtful to him and against winning, though it may support him inciting violence. - Harris' SSR (if she's in Washington for it) is a solid winner.

And she wasn't in Washington.

Trump's SLR for Election Day is spectacular (if he's in Florida). It's a hands-down winner. At the very least, he believes totally that he won, and it may show him as the winner per se. -- Harris' Demi-SLR (if she's in Washington) seems loss-prone (though with one strong, bright, positive indicator).

I should have relied most strongly on this one paragraph.

Trump's SLR and Demi-SLR for Inauguration Day are miserable. (The former appears broodingly rageful and hurtful. The latter is merely miserable.) -- Harris' Inauguration SLR is divided but positive on balance. Her Demi-SLR the morning after the inauguration is malefic dominated as if suddenly caught up in terrible conditions.

Something else bad happened to Trump. The reading was right; the inferences drawn regarding the election were wrong. I'm not sure when Harris left Washington, she may not have had the chart in question, and, in any case, I'm sure January 21 was a miserable day for her.

Trump's SQ for Inauguration Day is a flat-out loser.

It was extremely bad. It didn't mean he had lost. (I could make up any number of things this actually meant.)

Vance's SLR Inauguration Day (if he's in Washington) is as strong a winning, elevation chart as one might imagine, though accompanied by signs of emotional loss.

He had a winning day.

[Jim Eshelman]

Under this heading, I stated the dilemma with which I wrestled. The correct choice should have been, "So far as possible [based on information of candidates' locations], go with the lunar and demi-lunar returns." As I wrote it then:

Sidereal lunar returns are my absolute favorite tools. For predicting elections, they have severe limitations because of the issue of geographic locations.

If I were to ignore SLRs altogether, I would summarize this way: As in sports forecasting, if we can pick a clear loser, we know which way the game will go. Trump's chart is a decisive loser by directions and progressions, he has a brutal SSR, he has Saturn exactly on Ascendant in the SQ on Inauguration Day. I would, under these conditions (everything but lunars and demi-lunars) say that if Harris is in Washington when her next SSR sets up, it's an easy win for her; if she isn't there, then it still leans her way more than not.

Except... I can't ignore lunar returns. They're too important. And, to make it worse, Trump's lunars for Election Day and Inauguration Day seem to give opposite answers (provided I've correctly assessed where he will be on Election Day). There is also the Inauguration Day SLR for Vance, which appears to be a winner.

I think there is a timeline that we don't know. There will be intervening events we don't know about. There are emotional losses showing for every person involved, which may be related to any number of factors such as the actual outcome of the election, the death of the current president, social and political violence erupting, an unrelated natural disaster - even the death of a newly elected president.

I then gave what I labeled "my final conclusions," concluding:

I predict Kamala Harris will be inaugurated president because Donald Trump is shown to be a loser. (I have low confidence in this prediction because of the multiple contradictions and uncertainties.) ... If this were a sports match, I wouldn't advise betting on it either way.

I get points for honesty if not for being right

[Jim Eshelman]

Some August 11 subplots that mostly didn't come true. (One or two did.) This was an explanation of why I felt so uncertain about some things.

I still think there are sub-plots we don't know about.

Not just Team Trump court manipulations and ballot manipulations. We know about those. But there are so many other things that could affect how this plays out.

Will Biden die or become seriously disabled? This would put Harris as president, throw off the timing on some of events (of certain thresholds), account for the personal grief elements showing all over the place.

Will Trump become so dysfunctional he can't continue (or be allowed to continue)? Or die (or nearly die)? Or be sent to prison for convictions already secured (we'll have a partial answer in two or three weeks)?

Will Jimmy Carter die (probably), signaling a state funeral and other things anticipated by some of these charts?

This list of scenarios presumes that Harris, Walz, and Vance don't have anything happen to upset the applecart - which may not be a valid assumption. (Maybe Tim Walz is a secret cannibal?)

And, of course, there's more possible than I've said. But just taking these: How would each force us to reinterpret all the above?